Bitcoin rose above 67 thousand dollars after US President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire agreement had been reached with Iran on Sunday night. On the other hand, indicators in derivative markets revealed that cryptocurrency investors were not strongly convinced of this rise. The picture in the market indicated that the cautious stance continued despite the short-term recovery.
Derivative indicators point to weak demand
The decline in Brent oil to its 100-day low on Monday and the 3% increase in the Nasdaq 100 index supported the risk appetite. However, the same level of trust was not established on the Bitcoin front. The lack of clarity on the final timetable regarding the agreement reached with Iran and the operational details regarding maritime transportation caused investors to remain cautious. It was reported that the interim agreement is expected to come into effect on Friday.
The annualized premium on two-month futures on Bitcoin remained at 2% on Monday. This ratio indicates that the demand for leveraged bullish positions is limited. The indicator in question has not been able to rise above the 4% threshold, which is considered neutral, for more than three months. Despite the 24% decline in Bitcoin since the beginning of the year, the 4% jump during the day caught investors with bearish positions off guard and led to a liquidation of $ 210 million.
The annualized premium on Bitcoin futures remained at 2%, indicating that demand for bullish leveraged transactions remained weak.
The options market presented a similar picture. Put options on Bitcoin traded at a 16% premium over call options. This showed that the desire to protect against downside risks came to the fore and investors priced in the possibility of decline more. This divergence in crypto assets has become more pronounced as the Nasdaq 100 index remains just 1% below its all-time high.
Mixed signals on the corporate demand side
One factor supporting the rise was $86 million in net money entering U.S.-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs on Friday. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, funds that hold Bitcoin directly and are traded on traditional exchanges, are among closely watched indicators of institutional demand.
Mini glossary: Spot Bitcoin ETF is an exchange-traded fund where the fund holds Bitcoin directly on its balance sheet. These products allow investors to access price movement without directly storing the crypto asset.
However, considering the total net outflow of $730 million recorded since June 5, Friday’s inflows were not enough to reverse the trend. For this reason, it is considered that the segment with bullish expectations expects a stronger and more continuous corporate buying signal.
| Indicator | Data |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin price movement | Above $67k, 4% daily increase |
| Futures premium | %2 |
| Options market trend | Put options have a 16% premium over call options |
| Friday’s spot ETF net inflow | $86 million |
| Spot ETF net flow after June 5 | 730 million dollars net outflow |
Risk perception in the market has not completely dissipated
Another factor that fueled investor caution was conflicting statements regarding future transportation costs in Iran. The fact that the current agreement covers only a two-month period showed that the uncertainty has not completely disappeared. Meanwhile, the fact that the theme of artificial intelligence remained strong in the stock markets revealed that the capital directed to risky assets was also distributed to areas other than crypto.
Although there was a net inflow of $86 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the USA on Friday, the net outflow of $730 million seen since June 5 has not yet been compensated.
The news also stated that Strategy’s continued accumulation of Bitcoin was one of the factors that balanced the fear of a hard sell in the market. Despite this, persistent weakness in derivative markets remains question marks about how strong the $60,000 level is seen as support. On the other hand, if the decline in oil prices eases recession concerns, Bitcoin may become more likely to resettle above $70,000.
