Despite the recent rise in Bitcoin, on-chain data indicates that the recovery may still be fragile. According to analysts, the price rising above 67 thousand dollars again does not signal a strong return on its own. The weakness in trading volume and the stagnation in indicators measuring trading pressure raised questions about the permanence of the rise.
The recovery was attributed to geopolitical developments
LVRG Research Director Nick Ruck stated that although Bitcoin has regained $67,000 in recent days, the momentum remains weak. According to Ruck, falling volume and horizontal on-chain indicators indicate that there is no strong belief in the market. For this reason, it is considered that the current recovery may lose power rapidly.
Nick Ruck stated that there is no strong enough market support behind the recent rise in Bitcoin, so it is difficult to consider the recovery permanent.
Ruck also said that if the peace agreement brokered between the United States and Iran is disrupted, a new geopolitical fluctuation could occur. It is stated that in such a scenario, the pressure that may occur in the energy markets may create sharp price movements on risky assets, including Bitcoin.
US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that a peace agreement aimed at ending months of tension has been completed and is expected to be signed on Friday. It was seen that the recent rise in Bitcoin accelerated in line with the broad market trend after this statement.
Details of the agreement remain unclear
Most of the agreement is not yet finalized. However, according to Trump’s statement, the Strait of Hormuz will remain open and the USA will lift the blockade of the strait and Iranian ports. The sides will then begin a 60-day negotiation process on Iran’s nuclear program and possible sanctions relaxations, The Associated Press reported on Monday.
Bitcoin has been trading in line with broader market movements lately, driven by interest from institutional investors. This table shows that the crypto asset is guided in the short term not only by its own internal dynamics but also by global political and macroeconomic developments.
On-chain indicators still weak
According to Swissblock’s assessment on Monday, momentum, which measures the strength of price movements, and on-balance volume, or OBV, which monitors trading pressure, still display a weak outlook. The company reported that both indicators remained in negative territory.
After falling below $60,000 on June 6, Bitcoin reached $67,000 again on Monday. Despite this, price momentum remained at minus 1, while OBV fell to minus 1.7 million, the lowest point in years. These data indicate that the rise is not supported by strong participation.
Mini dictionary: OBV is a technical indicator that measures the direction of buying and selling pressure by monitoring trading volume along with price. Momentum is used to understand how strong or weak the price movement is.
Swissblock stated that a stronger recovery signal will only emerge when momentum and OBV return to the positive zone again, and until then, the risk of retesting the bottom levels remains on the table.
According to Swissblock, in a typical bear market, first the momentum weakens, then the OBV narrows and in the last stage the price tests lower levels. Bitcoin, on the other hand, continued this fragile outlook by falling below 66 thousand dollars in early trading on Tuesday morning, following its intraday peak on Monday.
