A new assessment looking at Bitcoin’s past market cycles suggests the price could come under pressure again from a long-term Fibonacci retracement level. According to the analysis, each period of decline that followed the cryptocurrency’s previous major rallies fell below the 61.8 percent retracement line of the move from near-zero levels to the peak.
The same level was observed in previous cycles
The model examined is based on the major bull highs after Bitcoin began trading at around $0.003 in February 2010. In the bear markets experienced after the peaks seen in June 2011, November 2013, December 2017 and November 2021, it is seen that the price fell below the 61.8 percent withdrawal level of the said rise.
Mini dictionary: Fibonacci retracement is a set of ratios used in technical analysis to monitor at which levels the price may pause after a strong rise or fall. The 61.8 percent level stands out as one of the most frequently followed thresholds in the markets.
In this context, the same technical threshold was broken downwards in four separate decline periods following the four major peaks. The evaluation states that this pattern has been preserved without exception so far.
Considering Bitcoin’s last peak this year, above $126,000, the 61.8 percent retracement point calculated from near-zero levels in early 2010 corresponds to $48,215.
The critical level in the current cycle is $48,215
Bitcoin reached a new peak this year, rising above $126,000. Applying the same calculation method to today’s cycle highlights the 61.8 percent retracement level at $48,215. The fact that the price is currently trading around $64,000 shows that this technical threshold is still significantly above.
In other words, the past pattern is not yet complete in this cycle. However, if the historical pattern comes into play again, it is stated that the area indicated by the charts may be at least $ 48,215.
The change in market structure attracts attention
However, it is also emphasized that such historical patterns alone do not provide definitive results. The fact that the number of evaluated samples is limited to only four cycles requires that the conclusions be read with caution.
In addition, the current structure of the Bitcoin market offers a more mature appearance compared to previous periods. Spot ETFs, institutional investors and advanced derivative instruments may cause price movements to stabilize differently than in the past. For this reason, it is considered among the possibilities that the historically sharp withdrawal pattern will encounter an earlier bottom this time.
Still, the current chart suggests that Bitcoin will continue to be closely watched in the market even before it reaches that long-term technical level. The possibility of a possible retreat towards the $48,215 level, especially with persistence above the $64,000 region, may be one of the topics that investors will follow most in the coming period.
