While Bitcoin is trading around $63,780, on-chain data points to a picture reminiscent of past bear periods in the market. The average cost for long-term investors is $49,500, and the average cost for short-term investors is $72,500. According to analysts, the difference between these two levels could be an important signal that the current cycle is not yet completed.
Why are LTH and STH data monitored?
On-chain analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s cyclical structure has remained intact to date, and the current bear market does not appear entirely different from previous examples. According to the analyst, in the past, during every major decline, long-term investors also came under serious pressure, and this was manifested by the narrowing of the difference between cost levels.
Mini dictionary: The realized price is an indicator that shows the average acquisition cost of coins carried on-chain. LTH refers to long-term investors, while STH refers to investors who hold for a shorter period of time.
Darkfost emphasized that Bitcoin’s cyclical structure has remained valid so far, so the current bear market may not progress much differently from previous periods.
Available data show that the gap between the two groups is still wide. The $49,500 average cost for long-term investors indicates lower entry levels that occur during periods of accumulation. Short-term investors, on the other hand, seem to have bought higher, with an average of $72,500, and this segment is considered more open to price pressure.
In previous cycles, the short-term investor cost eventually fell below the long-term investor cost, according to Darkfost. After this intersection, the market experienced weak periods that could last for several months. In this cycle, the intersection in question has not yet occurred.
The second analysis shared harsher decline scenarios
Publishing a separate review, Crypto Lens argued that Bitcoin’s recent rise to $66,000 could be a bullish trap within a broader bearish structure. Crypto Lens is known as an analysis account that shares technical charts and cycle comments on the crypto market.
Crypto Lens suggested that the recent move to $66,000 could be a temporary recovery, and the market could be right in the middle of the current bear cycle.
According to this analysis, the price movement may move towards the $53,000 and $48,000 levels after increasing from $63,000 to $66,000. In a more negative picture, $ 43,000 and then $ 32,000 levels may come to the fore. In the three shared scenarios, the first possibility indicates a decline to $ 48,000 in a few days, the second possibility points to $ 43,000 in August, and the harshest scenario points to $ 32,000 in September.
Current price and volume data
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin was traded at $63,781.20 at the time of writing. The asset gained 0.53 percent in value in the last 24 hours and 5 percent in the last seven days. The transaction volume was recorded as 23.5 billion dollars.
Although the price shows strength in the short term, both analyzes point out that caution should be exercised as we enter the second half of the year. In particular, the course of the difference between long- and short-term investor costs is among the closely watched indicators regarding the future direction of the market.
