According to CryptoQuant’s latest assessment, the $53,600 level stands out as a possible bottom area for Bitcoin. The company stated that this level corresponds to the realized price that tracks the aggregate cost base on the network. On the other hand, on the research side, it was reported that demand indicators still remain weak and there is no sign of a permanent recovery.
Realized price is on the agenda again
CryptoQuant calculated the realized price of Bitcoin at $53,600 and reported that this level could be a possible bottom area. Julio Moreno, the company’s research director, said that in bear markets, Bitcoin has historically formed a bottom by falling close to this benchmark or below it for short periods of time.
Historically, this level has been seen as an area that can confirm the formation of a bottom. However, due to the current weakness in demand, this possibility remains on the table for now.
Mini dictionary: Realized price refers to the average cost level calculated according to the last movement prices of coins in circulation on the chain. It is used to track the aggregate cost of the investor base, unlike market cap.
Moreno also emphasized that there is no certainty that the price will necessarily drop to this level. Bitcoin, which dropped to approximately $59,000 last week, recovered after this level and traded around $62,150. The recent decline left the price around 9 percent above $53,600.
Demand data showed continued weakness
According to CryptoQuant data, total Bitcoin demand decreased by 652,000 BTC last week. This was recorded as the largest weekly contraction since January 2022. In this measurement, speculative movements in futures transactions and apparent demand in the spot market are evaluated together.
According to the report, as Bitcoin fell below $60,000, both futures-based interest and spot demand weakened. It was stated that while long position liquidations increased, sales on the spot side accelerated. Moreover, one-year apparent demand growth turned negative and fell below its moving average. Moreno pointed out that this was the fastest deterioration since February 2024.
The number of buyers today seems lower than last year. This situation weakens the demand basis necessary for the price recovery to continue.
Tracking ETF flows and loss data
The slowdown on the corporate demand side was also notable. Thirty-day ETF demand growth slowed to minus 74,000 BTC. CryptoQuant noted that this was the weakest level since spot Bitcoin ETFs opened for trading in the US in January 2024. The report stated that ETFs contributed to the net supply increase as investors reduced positions.
Despite this, it was noted that the losses incurred did not yet indicate a period of complete surrender. In the last 30 days, Bitcoin investors lost a total of 187,000 BTC. For comparison, during the sub-$60,000 drop in February 2026, this amount was 400,000 BTC. At the market bottom in November 2022, the loss reached 1.2 million BTC.
Moreno stated that a significant number of investors are still not at a loss at the $59,000 level, so the strong signs of surrender seen in classic bottom processes have not yet occurred. According to him, heavy selling and seller exhaustion are often seen before major bottoms. Current data indicates that $53,600 can be viewed as a valuation base candidate, but a constructive recovery in demand for a new upward phase has not yet emerged.
