While the retreat in Bitcoin in June deepened, there was a significant increase in BTC transfers to Binance from large investors. According to the data, while the price decreased by approximately 14% during the month, wallets making transactions over 100 BTC turned to the stock market, indicating that the short-term selling pressure was getting stronger.
Drastic increase in whale movements
Whale inflows to Binance on June 2 reached approximately 8,200 BTC. This level stood out as the highest level recorded since the decline in February. On June 4, more than 6,400 BTC was entered. These figures were found remarkable when compared to the general trend after mid-April.
Average monthly whale inflows also increased from approximately 1,200 BTC to over 2,800 BTC in a short time. Thus, the amount of BTC moved by major investors to Binance more than doubled in a few weeks.
On chain analyst Darkfost stated that these movements appear to be a reactionary risk reduction behavior to the price decline rather than a strategic position change.
The definition of whale here is used for assets that transfer over 100 BTC per transaction. At current prices, this size corresponds to movements of over $6 million in a single transaction. Sending BTC by such assets to exchanges is generally interpreted as preparation for sale in the market.
However, similar high entry levels have been seen before in the later stages of declines. A similar picture occurred when Bitcoin fell below $60,000 at the beginning of February, and the return of large investors to the stock markets accelerated near the price bottom.
Supply absorption failed to offset price pressure
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said that the current distribution process resembles a period of large-scale handovers. According to Ju, the average cost level for Bitcoin investors is around $53,000. This zone has been associated with the bottom of bear markets in past market cycles.
Mini dictionary: Realized price refers to the average cost of all BTC on the network when they last moved. In market commentary, this level is viewed as the support or stress threshold as it indicates the average cost of the investor base.
Ki Young Ju stated that the average cost of Bitcoin investors is around $53,000, and that bear markets in the past often ended after the price fell below this level.
According to the data shared by Ju, Strategy company has bought 711,206 BTC since January 2023 and sold only 32 BTC. As of March 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed 509,102 BTC, while Strategy collected an additional 650,706 BTC. Thus, the total amount absorbed through the two channels exceeded 1.24 million BTC.
Despite this, the Bitcoin price has approached March 2024 levels again. It is estimated that the total reserve in the exchanges is approximately 2.7 million BTC, and the assets thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto are approximately 1 million BTC. Although the amount absorbed by ETFs and Strategy approached almost half of the total stock market reserves, the continued pressure on the price has become one of the main headlines that analysts follow closely.
