Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, believes crypto may have one more leg lower before a recovery, but says anyone buying Bitcoin in the $60,000s on a long-term horizon is likely making one of the better financial decisions available right now.
Speaking in a recent interview, Coutts laid out a measured case for where crypto goes from here.
Where the Bottom Might Be
Coutts acknowledged that crypto has already seen a roughly 50% decline from its highs, which he described as broadly in line with previous bear markets on a volatility-adjusted basis. But he stopped short of calling a definitive bottom, suggesting one more flush lower remains possible before the market finds its footing.
“Anything in the $60,000s for Bitcoin is an amazing accumulation zone on a long-term horizon,” he said, framing the current period as a potential opportunity rather than a reason for alarm.
The Liquidity Argument
The main point of Coutts’ thesis is not about crypto specifically. It is about what happens to global liquidity in 2026 and 2027. He identified three converging pressures that could stress financial markets in the near term.
First, a wave of major IPOs is absorbing significant capital. While the $250 billion IPO pipeline is large in nominal terms, Coutts noted it is proportionally smaller than the 2000 boom and may act as a sentiment topping signal rather than a fundamental one.
Second, the large technology companies that have been responsible for 30% of all S&P 500 buybacks are redirecting their free cash flow into AI infrastructure buildout, effectively removing a major source of equity market support going into next year.
Third and most significantly, a substantial increase in U.S. Treasury issuance is coming, which will stress the channels that absorb that supply and put upward pressure on yields across the curve. Interest costs as a percentage of GDP are already back at levels last seen in 1990.
Why Liquidity Eventually Has to Come
The U.S. government, he argued, cannot afford to let yields run too high. Budget deficits are already running at wartime levels as a percentage of GDP. If markets decline sharply and tax receipts fall, those deficits blow out further and yields become unmanageable.
The only realistic path out of that scenario runs through the Federal Reserve adding liquidity, which historically has been one of the most reliable tailwinds for risk assets including crypto.
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