Bitcoin has dropped into a key support zone in the low $70,000 range. The area sits between two major Fibonacci levels measured from the cycle low to the cycle high and has a long history of acting as both resistance and support. Right now it is the last meaningful floor before things get more serious.
Bears are in control on the higher timeframes. Bitcoin is below every major moving average. The weekly chart keeps rejecting the 21 EMA. The daily RSI keeps trending lower. The momentum oscillator on the weekly is flashing a bearish signal. None of that has changed.
The One Level That Matters
Bulls need $78,000. Not just a brief spike through it. A sustained close above it.
Until that happens the chart is a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Every bounce that fails below $78,000 just adds another data point to the bearish case. The structure does not change until that level changes hands.
A Bounce Is Possible But Do Not Confuse It With a Reversal
The current support zone is technically significant. Volume has been declining throughout the sell-off without any capitulation spike, which often precedes short-term relief moves. There is roughly $70 million in liquidity sitting below current prices and another $70 million above at $78,000.
Analysts are not ruling out a technical bounce over the weekend. What they are clear about is that a bounce means nothing unless it reaches and holds above $78,000. Anything short of that is just another lower high on the way down.
One analyst has a short position targeting $65,000 for partial coverage, with plans to scale out at each technical support level below.
The Bottom Line
Short selling here is described as high risk given the technical support in play. But the overall bias remains bearish until proven otherwise. Watch the weekly close. Watch whether the bounce, if it comes, has enough momentum to challenge $78,000. That is the only question that matters right now.
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