Bitcoin is trading just below two key on-chain metrics, positioning itself around $77,000 in recent weeks. According to Checkonchain data, this cryptocurrency has been closely following the “realized price” level calculated for 2026 since the beginning of April. That average currently stands at $76,200.
On-Chain Metrics and Support/Resistance Zones
“Realized price” refers to the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoins moving within a year. In other words, this level, which shows the collective cost of investors, stands out as an important indicator of the cost base of market participants, unlike traditional technical support and resistance points.
Last February, when the price suddenly dropped to 60 thousand dollars, the market managed to hold on near the realized price level of 2023. This revealed that cost-based levels are becoming more and more influential on market behavior day by day.
Mini dictionary: Realized price shows the average of the on-chain purchase costs of all cryptocurrencies moving in a certain period and determines the collective entry price for investors. It is considered an important reference for short-term investors and market analysis.
With the decline experienced over the weekend, bitcoin briefly hit $ 74,500 and returned from this point. It was noteworthy that this level coincided with the 128-day moving average; Technically, it was a threshold that the market frequently followed.
Short-Term Investors and Market Trends
The current price is below the “true market average” and “short-term holders’ cost base,” two important metrics near the $77,000 level. Both indicators produce signals regarding investors’ perception and short-term positioning. It is observed that the trading range continues to remain narrow as long as these limits remain below.
According to the current data published by Glassnode, more than 15 percent of all bitcoins in circulation have changed hands between 74 thousand and 83 thousand dollars. In other words, both new purchases and most of the sellers take positions within this band. This helps understand why price movement has remained tight lately.
Expectations in the Options Market
All eyes are now on the big option expiration that will take place on the Deribit exchange on May 29. Here, the total size of open positions reaches 6.6 billion dollars.
It seems that the most intense “call” options are at the level of 80 thousand dollars; With volume of approximately $600 million, this price represents upward movement expectations. On the other hand, the largest “put” concentration appears with an open position of $377 million at $75 thousand. Market makers and professional investors continue to take positions to keep the price between these two levels.
Analysts state that the price is likely to remain between 75 thousand and 80 thousand dollars until the option maturity and therefore volatility is suppressed.
| Level | Call Option (Open Position) | Put Option (Open Position) |
|---|---|---|
| $75,000 | — | $377 million |
| $80,000 | $600 million | — |
Market Congestion and Volume Distribution
The contraction in price movement in recent days is due to the accumulation of a significant part of the total supply within this band. The decrease in the amount of bitcoin held by long-term investors and the wait-and-see position of new buyers increases the congestion in the market. Indicators such as the 128-day moving average and realized price continue to be important psychological thresholds for investors.
