Bitcoin’s latest recovery movement has turned into a process closely examined by on-chain analysis firms. After the lows in April, the price rose rapidly and briefly exceeded 82 thousand dollars. However, the view that the recent fluctuation in the market was not permanent and that the rise occurred mainly through futures transactions came to the fore.
The 200-day average became critical resistance
Bitcoin’s price was rejected at around $82,400, which is the 200-day moving average. This technical level has been an important turning point for the market in the past. According to the data shared by CryptoQuant, a similar picture occurred in March 2022, and a long-term downward movement began after a rapid rise seen at that time.
Analysts argue that current market dynamics are similar to the period two years ago. At that time, the 200-day average was a strong resistance point, and failure to exceed this level ignited the correction process. In the current charts, price movements following a similar pattern attract attention.
Futures transactions came to the fore in the recent jump in prices above 80 thousand dollars. However, as the price approached the resistance point, highly leveraged positions began to unravel. This situation was considered as an indication that some investors were withdrawing from the market at higher levels.
When this activity coming from the futures and derivative markets weakened, the upward momentum disappeared. At the same time, it was observed that the buying appetite in the spot market decreased. It was noteworthy that US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which stood out as net buyers at the beginning of May, have turned to selling in recent days.
This change on the ETF side shows that the most important demand channel that has supported the recovery so far has weakened.
Market indicators point to weakness
The Coinbase Premium index, which measures the strength of spot demand in the recent rally, remained consistently negative. This indicates that spot Bitcoin demand from US-based institutional and individual investors is also low.
In past solid bull markets, the Coinbase Premium index has often appeared to be consistently positive. This time, the low premium value raised questions about the sustainability of the rally.
The Bull Score index followed by CryptoQuant has dropped from 40 to 20 in recent days. This decline means that the index indicates “extremely negative” conditions in the market. Lastly, these levels were seen in the sharp decline in the February-March 2026 period.
Currently, many analysts are following the $70,000 level in Bitcoin as a critical support point. This price coincides with the “Realized Price” level, which represents the cost to on-chain investors and has often formed a bottom in past bear markets.
Mini dictionary: Coinbase Premium – An indicator that shows the difference between the price at which Bitcoin is traded on the US-based Coinbase exchange and the global average market price. When it is positive, it indicates that the US investor is purchasing at a higher price, and when it is negative, it indicates that demand is weak.
| Indicator | Last Term | March 2022 | February-March 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200 Day Average | rejected | rejected | – |
| Bull Score Index | 20 | – | 20 |
| Coinbase Premium | Negative | – | – |
| Critical Support Level | $70,000 | – | – |
When all these indicators come together, a cautious atmosphere has emerged in the cryptocurrency market. The weakening of spot demand, the loss of momentum coming from futures transactions and the effective sales in the ETF wing suggest that the risks for the coming weeks have increased.
Whether Bitcoin can hold $70,000 as support stands out as an important threshold that will determine the short-term direction of the market.
