Bitcoin’s failure to stay above its moving average of approximately $ 83,000 in recent days has brought the concern of a new sharp decline wave to the market again. The current report published by K33 Research points out that the current cycle differs significantly from the major decline periods of the past.
A Different Course from Past Cycles
After similar price rejections in 2014, 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin usually rebounded strongly towards its 200-day moving average and then rapidly lost value. At that time, while highly leveraged positions were opened one after another, the environment of extreme optimism suddenly turned into a collapse. However, according to K33 Research, such a rise and subsequent sudden sales were not seen this year.
Vetle Lunde, chief analyst at K33 Research, stated that “So far, the market has progressed much more cautiously” and that investors’ positioning in derivative markets is generally pessimistic.
In the in-depth analysis, it was noted that the net funding rates in the derivative market have remained negative for 81 days, approaching a record time in Bitcoin history. This shows that investors mainly acted with the expectation of decline, even when prices dropped to $ 60,000 in February.
ETF Exits and Leveraged Positions
The annual spread in CME Bitcoin futures recently dropped below 2.5 percent. The report emphasized that these levels generally reflect an overly cautious environment in the markets. In addition, the amount of open interest in the options and futures markets is still high. Therefore, the market could become more volatile if prices continue to weaken.
Outflows from US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have accelerated noticeably. It was stated that a significant amount of $1.6 billion was withdrawn from the funds in the last 5 days, and this occurred during the period when the price approached $83,000. Since this level is very close to the average cost of many Bitcoin ETF investors, it is observed that sales accelerate as the price approaches here.
Mini dictionary: Open interest is the total number of active contracts that have not yet been closed in the futures or options market. If the amount of open interest is high, the market may be more sensitive and volatile.
Market Perception and Expectations
K33 Research pointed out that the tendency to sell increased as investors approached their cost recovery levels after losses in prices in the past. Currently this trend appears to be reemerging.
Despite this, K33’s own indicators reveal that it looks more like the vibrant market environment in the March-April period of 2025. At that time, BTC price experienced a strong rise after bottoming out following the additional tariffs imposed in the USA. The company believes that the $60,000 drop in February was probably the steepest decline in the current cycle.
Lunde states that the more moderate bull market in 2025 paves the way for a more balanced bear market in 2026, and expresses the opinion that the $ 60,000 level in February may be the biggest decline of this cycle.
Brief Comparison Chart: Recent Periods and Main Indicators
| Year | Post-Fall Course | Funding Rate | ETF Flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014/2018/2022 | Rapid recovery and then sharp decline again | Positive/Negative, floating | No ETF/Limited |
| 2024-2025 | Slow and cautious process, no sudden spikes | negative for a long time | High outflows ($1.6 billion in the last 5 days) |
