The fact that Bitcoin’s 30-day annualized price volatility dropped to a level rarely seen since 2012, when it began to be measured, indicated that the silence in the market would be broken. Volatility z-score was recorded as -1.29, which is well below Bitcoin’s historical average. Such low volatility is considered a sign of a period in which price movements follow a rather narrow band.
A rare recession in the Bitcoin market
Crypto analysis platform More Crypto Online pointed out that this rare level on the volatility regime chart has been repeated several times in Bitcoin history. While Bitcoin’s price has maintained its upward momentum recently, the underlying energy and volume are also rapidly weakening. The current structure resembles a classic B-wave correction according to Elliot Wave analysis.
“From an Elliot Wave analysis perspective, while the price is drifting upwards, there is no strong volume or volatility to support the movement underneath; these periods are generally seen before major movements,” analysts said.
Following a price squeeze, a directional breakout is typically expected in the markets. In the past, periods with such low volatility paved the way for sudden price jumps, both up and down.
Elliot Wave and Fibonacci levels are on the agenda
According to the shared daily chart, there was an A-wave rise, followed by a B-wave decline, from Bitcoin’s bottom level at the beginning of 2026 until March. It is stated that an upward movement, currently called wave C, has developed gradually throughout the second quarter. Critical resistances on the Fibonacci expansion lines are calculated as $ 86.691 at 123.60% level, $ 89.630 at 138% level and $ 94.706 at 161.80% level. Additionally, the 78.60% retracement point for the decline is located at $108.903.
It is emphasized that in order to achieve these goals, the current structure must turn into an accelerating rise rather than a weak upward movement.
A new era in volatility products
Investors are turning to new financial instruments in preparation for the upcoming increase in volatility. Bitcoin volatility index futures developed for institutional investors are in the works to be launched on June 1 by CME Group. This new instrument will be subject to approval by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
During this process, according to the data reflected on CryptoAppsy screens, the Bitcoin price was at the level of $ 77,180 at the time of analysis. Additionally, Fibonacci’s 100% extension point at $82,082 stands out as an important threshold for the price. The 38.20% retracement level is considered as $80,704. Experts state that falling below this level will pose a risk for the bulls.
Expectations for the future in the markets
Although Bitcoin produced a bull signal for the first time since 2023, it is stated that movements in some indicators alone may not be decisive in trading decisions. The serious squeeze in the volatility indicator paves the way for unusually sharp price fluctuations.
It appears that the volatility z-score has declined rapidly after climbing above +2.0 at the beginning of the year, and the market generally has difficulty maintaining calm at these points. However, it is predicted that upward movements from this level may occur sharply and suddenly.
