An old Bitcoin wallet, with no transactions since 2013, transferred 500 BTC to a new address last week. The transfer in question took place at 19:16 and was immediately followed by a decrease of approximately 3% in the BTC price. The price dropped to $78,000 within a few hours.
Alphractal: Old Bitcoin supply is back in action
On-chain analysis company Alphractal has been tracking similar wallet movements since 2024. The company tracks transfers of wallets that have been dormant for more than five years with the “Accumulation Group Heat Map.” Balances outstanding for 10 years or more are given a higher priority.
The majority of Bitcoin assets held in wallets for a decade or more were purchased for costs below $1,000. For this reason, the market is closely monitoring whether these moves create sales pressure.
According to Alphractal’s analysis, 72% of such transfers from old wallets to new but non-exchange-affiliated addresses typically settle in an over-the-counter (OTC) environment, considering all transactions in 2026. In other words, it is stated that it does not create direct sales pressure on the market and changes hands through an agreement.
According to the data shared by the company: “Transfers arising from the dormant supply for more than ten years are met with a price decrease in the first stage, but these are generally liquidity changes and should not be seen as a negative development. The decrease may create a new purchasing opportunity.”
The remaining 28% includes transfers moved directly to exchange wallets, and analysts consider these transactions as a short-term contrarian signal. Last week’s transfer was included in this category because it fits the over-the-counter movement profile.
Long positions at approximately $79,400 were liquidated within 90 minutes following the transfer. It was determined that this liquidation wave occurred in accordance with the previously formed risk levels, unless there was a sudden and random sale.
Sentiment change and search for signals in the market
The reactivation of old wallets that have been dormant for more than a decade has led to changes in investor sentiment of 8 to 14 points since 2024, according to data tracked by Alphractal. Such movements can typically present short-term buying opportunities in the price wave that occurs following the news.
The company also uses indicators such as the Smart Money Flow Index and Active Distribution Cohort Index for cross-validation during such transactions. They state that real sales usually start 30 minutes before the event and the effect continues for up to six hours. Retail news sources can mostly keep up with developments after this time window.
During last week’s price decline, the WR Delta indicator produced a significant bottom signal with a negative 1.8 standard deviation. Alphractal says that in 14 similar cases since 2024, profitable long positions have occurred in 11 of these levels.
“Movements from old wallets do not mean that they will bring negativity to the market. These are generally liquidity transfers; a price drop may present an opportunity to open new positions.”
According to CryptoAppsy data, with the effect of the transfer, the Bitcoin price dropped to $ 78,000.
