There have been serious money outflows in Bitcoin spot ETFs traded in the USA in recent days. These funds have attracted intense interest since their launch in January, attracting more than $3.29 billion in new investor money, especially in March and April. However, as of May, this trend has been reversed. According to the latest data, there was a total outflow of $635 million from 11 different Bitcoin spot ETFs in one day. This figure stands out as the highest daily output recorded since January 29.
Record Outflow from ETF Funds
Looking at weekly data, a total of $1.26 billion came out of these funds in the last five trading days. Thus, the net inflow to ETFs decreased to 58.5 billion dollars since the beginning of the year. Last week, this figure was $59.76 billion; In other words, there was a significant decrease in just one week.
Bitcoin price could not continue its rise due to these developments. Although the upward movement, which started from $ 65 thousand on Wednesday last week, reached over $ 80 thousand, the upward momentum weakened at the 200-day simple moving average, which is just above the $ 82 thousand level. According to data in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin lost more than 2 percent in value, falling to $79,400. Analysts state that concerns about rising inflation in the USA are effective in this decline. However, these macroeconomic developments have not yet caused a significant decline in major indices such as Nasdaq and S&P 500; On the contrary, these two indices reached new peaks yesterday.
Macroeconomics and ETF Flows
It has often been stated that strong Bitcoin ETF inflows in March and April supported the bull season in crypto. Now, both serious outflows and the continuing rise of inflation in the USA increase the perception of risk. Experts emphasize that these money outflows cannot be underestimated.
Adam Haeems, manager of Aset management company Tesseract Group, said: “The persistently high CPI, a Fed under Warsh, which is seen as more hawkish by the markets, or a new oil shock could keep Bitcoin under pressure even if net inflows are positive. The real question for us is not whether the upward movement can continue, but will macro conditions allow enough for fund flows to be effective?” he said.
Tesseract Group is known as a global crypto investment company with over $500 million in assets in its portfolio. The company stands out with the funds it manages in various digital asset instruments and conducts comprehensive analyzes on the interaction of macroeconomics and cryptocurrency markets in the sector.
The Ties Between ETFs and Bitcoin Are Weakening
The relationship between Bitcoin price and ETF fund flows is not as tight as before. According to the latest correlation analysis, the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin’s daily rate of return and the percentage change of net flows in ETF funds is currently at 0.16. This value is too low to be statistically significant and has fallen significantly from the peak of 0.68 in February.
In summary, it is no longer possible to make an accurate prediction about the direction of Bitcoin price directly by looking at how much money flows in and out of ETFs in a day. However, large outflows like the one experienced on Wednesday can still put significant pressure on the market.
