Bitcoin (BTC) price It turned its direction upward with Trump’s more moderate statements than expected. However, volatility may increase in the coming hours as inflation data will be released. BTC does not always go in the direction you expect, and the price is strong despite the negatives such as the fading hopes of a possible agreement between Iran and the USA and the risk of continuing increase in inflation. So how do QCP analysts evaluate the current situation?
This week in cryptocurrencies
Trump and Xi will meet in Beijing this week. If you remember, the dates for this meeting have been constantly postponed since February and March 2025. The visit, which was postponed for the last time when the Iran war started, will take place this week. The US and China will discuss trade, national security, rare earth supply chains and tensions in the Middle East. Although analysts say there may be no immediate concrete progress from the meeting, White House Deputy Press Secretary Kelly said at press time that “we may see agreements.”
“No tangible progress may emerge immediately from the meeting, but Trump will still present the results in a positive light. Still, markets will closely watch for signs of progress on tariffs, especially after a US trade court ruled last week that Trump’s 10% global tariffs were unlawful.” – QCP Capital
Inflation Stating that the report will determine the weekly performance, analysts pointed out the potential for horizontal movement rather than acceleration. Since employment data is strong, inflation figures at or above expectations may force the Fed to increase interest rates.
“If this week’s data shows inflation stabilizing, this could support expectations for easing financial conditions and lead to real yields falling, which has historically created a supportive environment for cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if inflation continues to rise, this could strengthen expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy, keeping real yields higher for longer and putting risky assets like cryptocurrencies under pressure.” – QCP Capital
CLARITY is coming
The US Senate Banking Committee also announced this week CLARITY Act will review. While this is a procedural step and not a final vote, it is still an important signal of legislative momentum. The process must progress by June and the law must be brought before Trump before the recess that begins before the midterm elections.
The White House was targeting July 4 as the deadline for full passage of the law. Now that the stablecoin yield hurdle has been resolved, the process should move forward. On Polymarket, the bill’s chances of being passed were up to 74%. The next 5-week period is important for the passage of the law, and if things go well, the law may come before Trump before the end of June.
“Overall, this looks set to be a risky week. However, crypto volatility continues to decline and is still near year-to-date lows. Even the VIX hovering around 18 indicates a relatively low level of stress in the overall markets. However, until there is more clarity on inflation dynamics and US-Iran developments, BTC is likely to remain in a narrow range in the near term, with the 84,000 level as the key resistance level.” – QCP Capital
