U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows totaling $490 million for three consecutive days. With this development, there was a short-term decrease in demand from institutional investors. Following the strong inflows in the last two weeks, these outflows indicated that the appetite in the market had cooled for a while. However, the general picture is still positive, as a total net inflow of 3.3 billion dollars has been achieved since March.
BTC price fluctuation and macroeconomic effects
Bitcoin price failed to attempt to exceed the $78,000 level again, and meanwhile, fund outflows for three consecutive days shook investor confidence. While the BTC value has decreased by 14 percent since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 index has reached a record level. Quarterly balance sheets of technology companies were below expectations, leading to sales in technology stocks; Meta shares fell 9 percent and Microsoft shares fell 4 percent. These developments reduced investors’ risk appetite and caused a decline in interest in Bitcoin.
In addition, the rise in oil prices and the jump in bond interest rates in the USA increased the risk aversion tendency. While Brent oil has risen to 126 dollars since March, the interest rate on the US 5-year Treasury bond has increased from 3.51 percent two months ago to 4.02 percent. Investors demanded higher returns on government bonds due to upward pressure on inflation, which influenced the shift towards non-alternative assets.
Inflation pressure and BTC’s long-term potential
While increasing inflation in the USA reduces the real return on fixed income assets, it is thought that it may create demand in the long term for alternatives with limited supply, such as Bitcoin. The Department of Commerce announced that the US economy grew by 2 percent in the first quarter of the year; This rate fell short of economists’ expectations of 2.3 percent. According to CNBC, current macroeconomic conditions are considered to support the long-term outlook for assets like BTC.
The US Department of Commerce reported that gross domestic product increased by 2 percent in the first quarter of the year, which was slightly below economists’ expectations.
On the other hand, the company called Strategy, which continues its activities under the management of Michael Saylor, announced that it added 56,235 BTC to its portfolio in the first four weeks of April. Thus, the company’s average cost increased to $75,537. Some market participants are concerned that there may be short-term pressure on the BTC price if Strategy does not continue its purchases at this pace.
Geopolitical developments and political impacts
The rapid rise in oil prices after the war in Iran, which started at the end of February, affected both global markets and risk perception. In this environment, Donald Trump’s family’s activities in the cryptocurrency markets also negatively affected the attractiveness of the sector. Three senators in the US demanded an investigation into the earnings of Trump and his family from crypto investments. Thus, both political risks and regulation discussions remained on the agenda.
In an environment of global inflationary pressure and relatively low economic growth, only three days of net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs did not cause major concern broadly. Experts state that the search for an alternative store of value may continue as fixed income assets lose their relative appeal due to rising inflation. In this context, the $ 80,000 target for Bitcoin is still among the main scenarios.
