The interest rate on the 30-year Treasury bond in the US reached 5%, the highest level since July 2025. This level has only been tested twice in the last two decades. Macroeconomic observers and cryptocurrency market analysts state that this rapid rise in interest rates continues to put pressure on crypto assets.
Strong Bond Yields and Their Impact on Bitcoin
Long-term US bond yields mean investors can provide an almost risk-free return of 5% annually to the US government. Thus, investors have less reason to remain in risky, non-interest-bearing assets such as Bitcoin. CryptoAppsy According to data, BTC price decreased by 2% in the last 24 hours to $ 75,670. During the same period, the Dollar Index also rose above 99 and continued its 0.5% gain of the previous day. This situation accelerates capital preferences towards interest rates and safe havens.
Diana Pires, one of the senior managers of sFOX, stated that as bond interest rates continue to remain balanced and offer attractive returns, it becomes difficult for risky assets to receive demand, and this is a negative factor especially for markets dependent on liquidity and momentum. Based in San Francisco, sFOX is a brokerage that provides crypto trading services to institutional investors and funds.
FED Decision, Market Reactions and Impressive Quotes
The US Federal Reserve (FED) kept the policy rate constant between 3.5 and 3.75, as expected. However, it was a surprise for the markets that three of the 12 members who voted objected to the statement signaling an interest rate cut. This situation was considered “hawkish” and increased the expectation in the markets that interest rates could remain high for a long time.
Rising bond interest rates and a strengthening dollar have put pressure on the values of crypto assets in the past. It is emphasized that this situation may continue as financial conditions tighten.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, also pointed out that increasing bond yields and the strong dollar create valuation pressure on cryptocurrencies. In addition, it was observed that the 10-year bond interest rate was the reference point for borrowing throughout the economy and its level continued to increase.
On the other hand, analysis company ING officials described the “hawkish” attitude of the three members of the FED as a message to the new FED President Kevin Warsh, who will take office soon, and hinted that ‘the interest rate cut will not be approved easily’. In the FED’s statement, there was no clear guidance regarding a possible relaxation signal or interest rate change expectation.
These developments were not limited to the USA alone. While global bond interest rates, including those in the United Kingdom, continue to increase, risk perception is being reshaped.
Commodity Prices and Inflation Outlook
Central bank decisions were not only effective in the rise in bond interest rates. In the first hours of the week, the barrel price of Brent oil reached $125, the highest level since 2022. At the same time, remarkable increases were observed in fuel prices in the USA, and this increased inflation expectations.
Many analysts think the Fed does not see enough evidence that inflation has returned to its target level. While the possibility of an interest rate cut is not clearly stated, bonds and similar assets that provide income under current conditions come to the fore. The current macro picture continues to put pressure on Bitcoin and crypto markets.
Although the market expects a net interest rate cut, the FED does not give such a message for now. Under these conditions, investors looking for returns are turning to safe havens, while crypto assets are negatively affected by this wind in the market.
