Today, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its April interest rate decision, and Jerome Powell’s press conference begins at 12:00 AM IST. The market maker tool currently shows a 100% probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged
Bitcoin is trading around $77,044 heading into the announcement.
Fed To Hold Interest Rate For Third Hold in a Row
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is 100% sure that the Fed will keep the rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
This rate decision is widely seen as a formality.
However, inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, and while growth has slowed slightly, the economy remains stable. Even so, the job market has stayed surprisingly resilient, payroll growth has been steady, and unemployment is sitting around 4.3%. Oil prices have climbed following
This gives the Fed little reason to rush into rate cuts.
Because of this, traders are not expecting any surprise move. Instead, all attention is on Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech for the further timeline for cuts.
Two Key Possible Scenarios That Matter
Jerome Powell’s speech is expected to drive the market. With his term ending in mid-May 2026, this could be one of his final major appearances.
Because the rate decision is already expected, markets are focused on his tone. Experts see two main outcomes for crypto.
Scenario One — Hawkish Tone
If Powell stays strict and focuses on high inflation, rising oil prices, and delays rate cuts, markets may react negatively.
In this case, the U.S. dollar could rise, bond yields may increase, and risk assets like Bitcoin could face pressure. Crypto may see short-term selling, with altcoins likely dropping more than Bitcoin.
Looking at the past trends, it shows that Bitcoin can move 5% to 10% in a single day after such signals. This scenario would mean a longer wait for easier money.
Scenario Two — Dovish Tone
If Powell sounds more relaxed and suggests inflation may cool soon, markets could turn positive quickly. A softer tone could weaken the dollar, lower yields, and boost risk appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum may move higher, while altcoins could see stronger gains.
Even a small hint toward future rate cuts could act as a trigger for Bitcoin to break above its current resistance levels.
Bitcoin Holds Strong, But Faces Key Levels
Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe shared a clear view on Bitcoin’s current setup. According to his analysis, Bitcoin is holding an important support area near $73,500. As long as this level remains strong, the overall market structure stays positive.
Van de Poppe highlighted three key levels traders should watch closely tonight:
The first level is $80,646, which needs to be broken and held for further upside momentum. If Bitcoin moves above that, the next major resistance stands near $86,549, shown as the next big test for bulls.
On the downside, the $71,438 to $73,408 range is the key support zone that must hold if price pulls back. Lastly, Van de Poppe also pointed to $100,739 as the larger long-term target.
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