A key indicator tracking the overall health of the Bitcoin market has returned a neutral signal for the first time since prices surged above $126,000. Bitcoin Bull Score Index of CryptoQuant, one of the market’s leading data platforms, reached the 50 level after a long period of decline. This development may indicate that the bear market is over, but experts remind that previous similar signals may be misleading.
Bull Score Index: Is a new era entering the market?
Developed by CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index is calculated with data obtained from ten different indicators on the chain. Factors such as transaction mobility on the blockchain, investors’ profitability rate and market liquidity form the basis of this composite index. The index rose to 50 for the first time since the bear market began at $126,000. This figure shows that exactly half of the indicators included in the index have turned positive, while the other half still remain weak. The recovery of prices to $78,000 after approaching $60,000 stands out as one of the most important factors behind the index’s return to neutral.
If the index is below 40, it indicates a structural decline in the market, and if it is above 60, it indicates a sustainable and strong upward trend. Reaching the 50 level is considered a significant development for the index, which has been in the bear zone for a long time.
Similar signals have been misleading in the past
CryptoQuant’s analysis team compared the current situation to the developments in March 2022. At that time, the index reached 50 again, indicating that the bear market was over. Prices started from $35,000 and climbed to $48,000 during that period. Many investors thought that the downtrend, which reached $ 70,000 in November 2021 and started thereafter, was over. However, soon the prices dropped rapidly and fell below $20,000, while the bear atmosphere continued much harsher than expected.
Julio Moreno, one of CryptoQuant’s research team, said, “In this bear market, the Bull Score Index entered the neutral zone (50) for the first time. In March 2022, after the index remained in neutral for a week, prices started to decline again.”
This index from CryptoQuant takes into account not only price movements but also structural changes on the chain. Therefore, its return to neutral indicates that there has been a significant improvement in on-chain metrics.
Market participants remain cautious
Although similarities are established with 2022, the current market structure and investors’ behavior contain significant differences. When we look at the positioning in derivative products, there is no strong upward trend despite the recovery in prices. Instead, it is emphasized that the market fluctuates in a narrow range and does not indicate a major breakout.
In the market note published by Singapore-based digital asset trading company QCP Capital, it was stated that “Short-term volatility is horizontal at 40 levels, and the trend shows that investors are looking for downside protection. Positioning indicates a horizontal course rather than a significant upward movement.”
Market experts state that such neutral signals can be seen frequently, especially during transition periods, and sudden directional changes in price may occur in the near future. Misleading signals experienced in the past highlight a cautious approach for investors.
