Recent developments in quantum technologies have revived long-standing security concerns about the future of Bitcoin. The possibility of a quantum computer powerful enough, especially in terms of cryptography, to break Bitcoin’s current signature algorithm is evaluated in detail by James Check, one of the leading analysts in the industry.
Quantum threat and BTCs from the Satoshi era
Currently, Bitcoin’s security is based on elliptic curve signatures. But a quantum-capable computer could risk around 1.7 million BTC, with keys clearly visible in wallets created in the early years and still carried. This amount corresponds to approximately 145 billion dollars at today’s prices. Although at first glance this figure seems to create a devastating selling pressure in the market, analysis indicates that it will be more manageable than expected.
James Check,
“The real risk with quantum computing is the fear that the total supply of early Bitcoin addresses may be released much faster than appears to be the case.”
shares his assessment. These wallets, especially those belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto and other early participants between 2009 and 2011, have been dormant for a long time.
Market liquidity and historical sales
Despite critical caveats, the numbers look clearer in the context of such a supply shock assumption, given Bitcoin’s current market depth and trading volume. During bull seasons, long-term investors typically sell between 10,000 and 30,000 BTC per day. If this pace is maintained, the entire supply of the Satoshi period can be melted in the market within two to three months. Additionally, in a recent bear market, 2.3 million BTC changed hands in just one quarter, and there was no systemic collapse.
In addition, approximately 850,000 BTC is transferred to crypto exchanges per month. In the derivative markets, volume equal to the amount of Satoshi’s BTC is created in a few days. This supply, which seems huge when looked at alone, is evaluated in the usual proportions compared to Bitcoin’s overall liquidity and circulation.
Instant sales pressure and possible scenarios
According to experts, if such a risk occurs, a sudden and intense sales wave may lead to sharp fluctuations in prices. However, Check said, “An economically sensible actor might not choose to unload such wealth all at once and reduce the price. He is much more likely to sell in stages or hedge with derivative instruments to maximize his returns.” He emphasizes:
The Bitcoin market has been able to absorb supply movements of this magnitude in the past, and the conversion period is generally expressed in months.
In this scenario, it is thought that the real danger may arise in terms of governance rather than sales pressure. The implementation of a proposal called BIP-361, which will freeze these assets from the Satoshi era in the Bitcoin protocol, has become a matter of discussion. The final solution will be shaped in the light of community and technical developments.
