The price of Bitcoin dropped sharply on Thursday morning after US President Donald Trump signaled intervention against Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. BTC/USD, which rose to $79,449 during the week, retreated to $78,326 in the morning transactions after Trump’s instruction to navy ships to “hit Iranian boats laying mines”. Just before this decline, there was a serious rise in the cryptocurrency market, thanks to the increase in risk appetite. However, new geopolitical tension triggered a process in which some investors reduced positions in both crypto and equity markets.
Trump’s Exit from the Strait of Hormuz and Increasing Anxiety in the Markets
US President Trump’s statements added uncertainty to the already fragile ceasefire process. In his post on social media, he stated that there is no specific date for the war with Iran or ending the ceasefire; He also emphasized that Iran’s leadership position is controversial, increasing concerns about the negotiations. After the US Department of Defense announced that it had seized another ship carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean, news came that Iran attacked 3 cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz and captured two of them. Iran’s chief negotiator’s announcement that the first revenues from ships passing through the Bosphorus had arrived was one of the developments that increased tension in the region.
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be closely followed in the markets as the most critical route for global oil transportation. While oil prices accelerated their upward movement with the increasing tension in the region, Bitcoin, which has been fed by risk appetite in recent weeks, has been seen to be priced more cautiously against these developments.
Volatility in the market increased after Trump publicly announced his order to “shoot any Iranian boat laying mines”; It was highlighted that this situation pushed investors to act more protectively.
High Volatility in Bitcoin: Weekly Gains Maintained
Although Bitcoin gained approximately 7.5 percent in value with the rapid rise at the beginning of the week, it gave back some of its rise with Trump’s statements. Despite the withdrawal from $79,000 levels, the cryptocurrency managed to remain on stronger ground than in the previous months of the year. Compared to the low trend seen in February and March, market sentiment still seems more positive.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, has recently recovered from the “Extreme Fear” zone to the “Fear” level. This change indicates a less defensive situation compared to the beginning of the year. Despite price fluctuations in recent days, Bitcoin’s holding above previous important support levels shows that the market is still in a stable structure.
Demand from institutional investors also supports this confidence. Strategic management companies increased their reserves by purchasing approximately $2.5 billion worth of BTC during the week. This strong demand has helped keep interest in Bitcoin alive despite geopolitical pressures.
Futures Demand Shapes the Rise
Some analysts in the market state that the recent rise is mainly due to demand in derivative markets. Although volumes in the spot market remain weak, interest in perpetual futures contracts has increased.
Cryptoquant CEO Julio Moreno stated that the recent rise was “purely driven by the demand in the futures market”; He stated that although the demand in the spot market is lower, it is in a slow recovery process.
A similar situation occurred in January, and the effect of derivative markets came to the fore in Bitcoin’s movement approaching $ 98,000. Market commentators are closely monitoring whether the current decline will remain temporary and turn into a broader correction.
Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe sees Bitcoin’s return from 79,000 as normal price movement. According to his chart, he states that there is potential for the price to rise to $85,000-88,000 in the next two weeks as long as the $73,000-75,000 range can be maintained.
