Claiming that Trump only extended the ceasefire for 3-5 days, FOX says this will not last longer. Tasnim, on the other hand, reported that “no decision has been made yet” regarding the possibility of a meeting on Friday. As the Iran agenda remains hot, volatility also increases.
Bitcoin (BTC)
At the time of writing, BTC is pushing $79,000 due to the potential talks on Friday. Today, we mentioned that the earnings reports of companies in the US markets could also push the index up. Shares of AI and related companies continue to strengthen today of Bitcoin It worked for him. This weather could pave the way for BTC to return to $80,000.
The next target for BTC, which continues to close above the resistance at $ 76 thousand, is $ 80,400. It was already predicted that the price, which has been stalled in the channel for more than 70 days, could experience such a break, and if the closes above the resistance continue, it means that the return from the bottom has begun. But the chaotic agenda says the direction is not guaranteed.
QCP Capital cryptocurrencies
Analysts BTC He described the latest rise as “relief” in the evaluation he shared before pulling up the daily peak. In other words, it is a movement dependent on the news flow rather than a real return from the bottom. Trump’s His unilateral extension of the ceasefire eliminated the urgency of peace talks. The “Fed is overly dependent on forward-looking forecasts” part of the statement of Kevin Warsh, who will be the new Fed President, was also hopeful for interest rate cuts.
But the risk continues.
“The structural background is still unresolved. The blockade continues, the Strait is effectively closed, and Iran’s stance on an extension is still unclear. The fact that oil is hovering around $100 shows that markets are now pricing not only the risk of shock but also permanence. While this keeps inflation stable in the short term, it also drags down growth as real incomes weaken and consumption declines. The macro picture is therefore stuck in a narrow range: inflation is high enough to restrict policy easing, but growth is high enough to force a sustainable hawkish stance.” weak.”
Since funding is still negative, we can say that the latest move has triggered more short selling appetite rather than eliminating short positions completely. These position dynamics leave the market vulnerable to tactical squeezes, with analysts recommend remaining cautious until we see a decisive shift in sentiment.
“in oil prices Without a clearer pullback, a credible road map for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or a softer signal on interest rates, the conflict premium will not completely disappear.
In options, the surface still does not confirm a clear breakout. While front-end volatilities remain tight around 40 relative to realized volatility, skew has strengthened slightly and downside protection is still better supported. The futures structure remains only slightly upward sloping. “Overall, derivatives markets continue to price consolidation rather than trend extension, indicating a lack of directional conviction among institutional participants.”
