One of the big moves expected in the cryptocurrency market is that Bitcoin options contracts worth $7.9 billion will expire on Friday. This maturity process, which will take place on the Deribit platform, may have a serious impact on the market. Experts emphasize that the $62,000 and $75,000 levels will be key in the coming days.
$75,000 level: The center of bullish expectations
According to the information shared by the data and analysis platform Glassnode, the most intense movement in call options for Bitcoin is at the level of $ 75,000. Currently, the open position size is approximately 395 million dollars. This indicates that call options at $75,000 reflect significant bullish sentiment on the part of investors.
However, it is stated that the technical factor called “gamma effect” comes into play here. The fact that the gamma effect is extremely negative at the $ 75,000 level means that the market may witness much sharper price fluctuations at this point. Market makers may have to buy more Bitcoin when the price rises and sell more when it falls. Thus, the possibility of intensifying price movements increases.
“When the open interest at $ 75,000 and the negative gamma effect are evaluated together, it is expected that this region will become an area where the price will be open to sharp fluctuations.”
Downside risk and $62,000 protection level
The most striking level for investors advocating a downward trend is the $ 62,000 point. At this level, approximately $330 million worth of put option contracts are open. Since put options serve as a type of insurance against declines, these contracts can be activated if pricing occurs below $62,000.
Thus, the two main poles in the market are forming between $62,000 and $75,000. This region stands out as a critical band for possible price movements in the short term.
Middle of the market: $71,000 ‘max pain’ point
The level at which most contracts will become worthless, called “max pain” in the options market, is at $71,000. It is emphasized that this point may have a magnetic effect on prices in the short term. However, this level may change depending on the price and position size as the maturity of the contracts approaches.
An interesting situation compared to the past is that while the Bitcoin price was below ‘max pain’ in March, it is now above it. This is seen as a test of whether the rise in the market can be maintained.
In addition to the options market, the negative course of funding rates in permanent Bitcoin futures indicates that positions opened in anticipation of sales are accumulating. If the price manages to hold above $75,000, closing these short positions could create upward pressure.
It is stated that the Deribit platform is currently ahead in the industry with an open option position of $ 31 billion, and has even surpassed BlackRock’s IBIT product, one of the largest Bitcoin ETFs in the USA.
