The rise of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency markets in mid-April 2026 is remarkable, but looking at the data on the chain, new capital inflow to the market remains limited. Glassnode analysis and evaluations made at Paris Blockchain Week indicate that the market outlook officially remains in the “must watch with caution” zone.
Price rises, but capital outflow continues
Bitcoin’s rise above $76,000 on April 15 brought the discourse of a new bull period back to the agenda. However, analyst CryptoVizArt, working at Glassnode, determined that Bitcoin was traded below the average entry level of active investors for 75 days, based on the “real market average” metric. This situation was also seen in the past in the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 seasons and resulted in deep declines of up to 57%.
During the same period, independent researcher Axel Adler Jr. revealed that Bitcoin’s 365-day market value increase rate on every trading day since the beginning of 2026 has been negative compared to the actual value increase. The realized market value, which was approximately 1.12 trillion dollars at the beginning of the year, decreased to 1.08 trillion dollars, a decrease of 3.2%. Although this decline has slowed slightly on a short-term transaction basis, capital is still being withdrawn from the market.
“Although prices in the market are moving up, fresh money inflow has not yet reached a sufficient level. The latest rise shows the slowdown in sales rather than purchases.”
Technical indicators and on-chain data
On the technical analysis front, Bitcoin’s closing above $76,000 strengthened the view that the ascending triangle formation was completed and the price had the potential to rise to $89,050, or approximately 18%. Although the rise of the RSI to 63 is also perceived as positive, the data that really attracts attention is the rapid increase in the number of daily transactions. On April 5, the number of transactions reached 765,000, marking a 62 percent climb since the beginning of the year. In addition, network fees also rose 4% on a weekly basis, giving a classic signal that demand is returning.
Still, analysts state that even though prices and transaction rates are rising, the fundamental conditions that will allow new large buyers to enter the market are still not fully formed. Looking at previous cycles, such divergences can sometimes last for months, and more confirmatory data is needed for a clear direction.
Different strategies in European and US companies
Institutional Bitcoin accumulation was also on the agenda at Paris Blockchain Week. Companies in Europe do not follow the same model that MicroStrategy follows in the US. While it is possible for public companies in the USA to accelerate Bitcoin purchases by issuing bonds, in Europe the market depth is shallower and the regulatory environment is stricter. Thomas Vogel, from Latham & Watkins’ Paris and Frankfurt offices, stated that the export processes in the USA and Europe differ greatly.
For example, Bitcoin Group SE from Germany has 3,605 BTC, while Capital B, based in France, has 2,925 BTC. However, MicroStrategy in the USA bought another 13,927 BTC in a single week at the beginning of April, bringing its total assets to over 780,000 BTC. Companies in Europe are quite small compared to this volume.
From a market perspective, this picture reveals that corporate demand will be concentrated in the US axis, as in previous cycles, and a rapid increase should not be expected from Europe. The limited size and tight regulations of European capital markets lead to slow and cautious institutional interest compared to the US.
Quantum computer debate is on the Bitcoin agenda
On the other hand, another important issue brought to the agenda in the sector is the security risks that quantum computers may cause. Blockstream CEO Adam Back opened this topic at Paris Blockchain Week. Back stated that it is right to start preparing for Bitcoin’s quantum age today, but this threat is still in the very distant future.
Adam Back advocated for the development of hash-based signatures and next-generation signature schemes. Blockstream is testing this technology in its second layer solution called Liquid Network. During the discussions, it was stated that in a possible quantum transition in the future, the dormant coins in Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallet could be detected and they could be considered ‘lost’.
During the week, developer Jameson Lopp and his team brought up BIP-361, which proposes freezing coins that may be affected by quantum. However, the proposal received intense objections from the industry; Some people described this as “interference with property rights”. Although the quantum threat does not have an impact on the price in the short term, it is generally accepted that the Bitcoin ecosystem should now prepare for new security standards.
Overview and signals to watch
As a result, although the price rise and intra-network activity in the Bitcoin market are creating excitement, a permanent return in capital inflows and institutional demand is yet to be seen. It seems difficult to say that the bull market has definitely started, especially without a permanent price formation above the $ 78,000 threshold, the emergence of broader-based institutional buyers from Europe and Asia, and the development of security solutions that unite the community for post-quantum.
