Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, stated that Bitcoin is approaching the bottom levels in the current market cycle. Van Eck, who has been working in the finance industry for many years, offers various products for cryptocurrencies with the global investment company he manages. According to his statement, the four-year cycle of the Bitcoin price is coming to an end and 2026 is seen as the correction year of this cycle.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle and Halving Mechanism
According to Van Eck’s assessment, Bitcoin price movements are generally based on a four-year recurring investment cycle. In this model, it is reported that prices increased for three consecutive years, followed by a strong decline in the fourth year. It is currently stated that this correction year is effective in the market.
The total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million. Additionally, the halving mechanism, which occurs every four years and regularly reduces miner rewards, leads to a slowdown in new supply in the long run. Van Eck pointed out that this structure is the main reason for Bitcoin’s long-term price movements.
Van Eck emphasized that investors tend to overcomplicate price movements. However, he thinks the halving cycle is the main factor in most of the major price changes experienced.
2026 Price Targets and Market Uncertainty
As of March 3, 2026, Bitcoin price is trading around $68,445. While the price faces resistance at the $70,000 level, $62,300 stands out as a strong support point. A break above $73,000 could mean the start of a new upward wave in the market.
Recently, there have been mixed signals in the sentiment of both institutional and individual investors. While the total funds issued from Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $ 9 billion, the optimistic atmosphere among individual investors has strengthened and an increase in short-term expectations is observed.
Research by VanEck found that Bitcoin’s realized volatility has decreased by almost 50 percent since the 2022 correction. This indicates that extremely sharp price declines and sudden large increases may be less likely to occur than in the past. This development is interpreted as a maturing structure in the cryptocurrency market.
There are striking differences between institutions in price expectations for the end of 2026. In VanEck’s projections, it is stated that prices will remain largely horizontal and no significant sudden increase or sharp decline is expected. In contrast, Standard Chartered offers a much more optimistic forecast, predicting that Bitcoin could close the year at $150,000. However, this prediction is formulated depending on improvement in global conditions and institutional adoption.
From a technical perspective, falling below $62,300 could lead to increased selling pressure, while rising above $73,000 could lead to a new wave of recovery. Investors are watching these levels closely.
Recent geopolitical tensions also contributed to price volatility. Despite this, it is noteworthy that Bitcoin holds above the main support levels.
