Bitcoin’s recent breakout from the macro downtrend has sparked discussions among analysts about its next moves, particularly with the halving event on the horizon. In a recent video, analyst Rekt Capital opened up about the potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s price action and drew comparisons with historical patterns.
The analysis primarily focuses on the reaccumulation range forming before the halving event, emphasizing parallels with the period of 2015-2016. The current reaccumulation range appears similar to the one observed during the mentioned historical period.
A key point of discussion is the possibility of a pullback around the halving event, with the analyst suggesting a scenario where a reaccumulation range break leads to a pullback. The comparison with the 2015-2016 cycle highlights a similar rejection from a resistance level before the halving, contributing to a potential pullback.
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His analysis addresses concerns within the crypto community about the likelihood of a pre-halving retracement. The analyst points out that historical data indicates such retracements but emphasizes that they tend to be shallow. As of the latest analysis, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $46,000, with a potential retracement of 20-30% suggested.
He said, “But generally around the pre-halving retrace is the last opportunity, and then we flick back up, break beyond here, and possibly turn this level of 46k into a new support before rallying to revisit the old all-time highs and breaking beyond them because this is what happened over here. We broke beyond here, pulled back – not a picture-perfect retest by any means unless you would want to bring…”
One aspect highlighted in the analysis is the weakening resistance pattern over time. By comparing resistance levels in the current cycle with those in the past, the analyst suggests that rejections are becoming less severe, potentially leading to shallower retracements.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $41,453. The coin is trading in red and is down by more than three percent.