Analyst Rekt Capital analyzed the current state of the crypto market, explaining the importance of the developing “candle 4” in the 4-year cycle, especially during the halving year.
While traditionally green candles are expected, the current candle appears red due to retracements early in the halving year.
Rekt Capital pointed out that the historical pattern involves breaking the 4-year cycle resistance after the halving event, providing examples from previous cycles.
The analysis indicated that the rejection from the 4-year cycle resistance weakens with each cycle, and the breakthrough typically occurs many months after the halving.
The current retracement and downside are considered normal pre-halving market behavior. Rekt Capital suggested a likely recovery two months before the halving, followed by another retrace before transitioning into the reaccumulation period.
Regarding potential downside scenarios, Rekt Capital said that the current market conditions present a bargain buying opportunity for Bitcoin. While a rejection from the 4-year cycle resistance around 46k is expected, breaking beyond it is anticipated post-halving, potentially leading to a rally to new highs in 2024.
The analyst stresses the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market and the historical patterns surrounding halving events. The analysis suggests that the current market conditions offer a favorable opportunity for investors before the anticipated rally post-halving. However, specific price points were not provided in the original content.
He said, “This is a bargain buying opportunity worth taking advantage of before we embark on that pre-halving rally. Maybe we reject again from $46k like we saw in 2016, 2018, 2020 and then we’re able to retrace from there into the pre-halving retrace, reaccumulate, and then break beyond that $46k region later on. So essentially, the pathway looks like a bit more downside still to come, potentially in the higher 30ks, maybe mid-30ks in this period that is approximately 80 days before the halving.”
