Adrian Zduńczyk, a Chartered Market Technician from Poland, recently talked about the current state of the cryptocurrency market, particularly focusing on Bitcoin. In an interview with Thinking Crypto, Zduńczyk discussed his short-term expectations for Bitcoin, the impact of ETF approvals, and his outlook for the market in 2024 and beyond.
Bitcoin’s Recent Performance:
Zduńczyk highlighted the recent rally of Bitcoin and pointed out a slight pullback. Stressing the importance of distinguishing between expectations, guesses, and actual trading, he discussed the importance of technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and rate of change to identify potential market reversals.
He opened up the persistence of the upward market trend, noting that key indicators, including the 200-day moving average, have been showing positive signals since January. Despite a minor retracement, Bitcoin has shown a remarkable 190% year-to-date increase, underlining the strength of the bull market that has been in place since January.
Bitcoin ETF Impact:
Addressing the anticipation surrounding Bitcoin spot ETF approvals in the United States, Zduńczyk pointed out the importance of institutional adoption. He highlighted the potential for trillions of dollars to enter the crypto market with the introduction of ETFs, pinning the positive impact on Bitcoin’s price.
Zduńczyk drew attention to the seasonal patterns in Bitcoin’s performance, correlating it with historical data. Noting the positive trend in January over the years, he explained the January barometer seasonal pattern, suggesting an 80% probability of a positive year if January closes positively.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycles:
Discussing Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles and their correlation with the presidential stock market cycle, Zduńczyk shared insights into the potential for a new all-time high in 2025. He talked about the alignment of factors such as the upcoming halving in April 2024, the election year in 2024, and the strong correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market. When pressed for a potential all-time high price prediction, Zduńczyk remained cautious but suggested that a three to fivefold increase from the halving price wouldn’t be surprising.
