As the meme coin market undergoes a correction amid Bitcoin’s recent bearish trend, Shiba Inu is also feeling the impact, having faced rejection at its immediate resistance level. While various indicators, including the progress of Shibarium, suggest potential bullish outcomes, there’s growing concern over a bearish pullback due to a notable increase in a key on-chain trend indicating that SHIB’s price might be overvalued.
January Is Bullish For SHIB
As January 2024 approaches, the Shiba Inu price is set for another volatile move, judging by its past price returns. Over the last three years, SHIB has experienced notable volatility in January.
Specifically, in January 2022, SHIB concluded the month with a massive 35.8% decrease in value. However, January 2023 saw a remarkable turnaround, with SHIB recording a significant 46.34% increase by month’s end. Analyzing SHIB’s January price changes over these years yields an average and median value change of around 5.24%.
Given that Shiba Inu has only been around for three years, using its past performance to predict future trends can be risky. However, recent large-scale Shiba Inu whale activities, including a transfer of 4.25 trillion tokens worth $44.91 million and another 2.28 trillion tokens moved on Dec. 26, could lead to increased volatility in January. These significant moves, tracked by Whale Alert, have sparked concerns about their impact on the price trends of Shiba Inu.
The worry of a bearish trend is intensified by the recent surge in Shiba Inu’s NVT ratio (network value to transaction). Data from IntoTheBlock reveals that SHIB’s NVT ratio has climbed from a low of 59 to above 205 in just a week, indicating that the transaction value isn’t keeping up with the increasing network value.
This difference can be a sign of overvaluation for the meme coin. To correct this, the network value needs to decrease to match the transaction value, thereby bringing stability to the NVT ratio.
What’s Next For SHIB Price?
The bears managed to push the SHIB price below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour price chart. However, bulls are strongly defending a decline below the ascending support line. As of writing, SHIB price trades at $0.00001066, surging over 0.67% from yesterday’s rate.
Currently, the 20-day EMA is relatively flat, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. This could tilt in favor of the bears if they successfully lower and maintain the price below EMA20 and the support line. In such a scenario, the price may experience a decline to the $0.000009 level.
To regain control, buyers will need to drive the price above the resistance zone of $0.0000112 to $0.000012. If they achieve this breakthrough, the SHIB price could start its next upward movement, potentially targeting $0.000016 in January.
