On today’s Macro Markets show, veteran stock market and EdaFace analyst Marcel Pechman starts by analyzing Argentina’s 150% inflation, which proves that people continue to work and consume (somehow) even if their local currency loses its value.
What is the lesson here? For starters, everyone wants free money. That explains why altcoins and airdrops continue to attract attention, regardless of whether the majority of investors end up being unprofitable.
You might think that those investors would quickly learn their lesson, but in reality, quite the opposite occurs. All it takes is a new marketing strategy — a new way of promising free money — just like the Argentines have a tendency to forget the mess the governments have caused over the course of 10 years.
For Pechman, the bottom line is: Forget any promise of free money or dividends that don’t come explicitly from economic activity.
The show’s next segment covers the topic most loved by economists: the inverted yield curve. This event happens when shorter-dated Treasurys have higher returns than longer-term ones, suggesting the United States Federal Reserve will hurt the economy.
According to Pechman, that’s a recession indicator, but historically, it takes six to 36 months to happen, so traders should avoid such a metric. Those calling for a recession 12 months ago saw the S&P 500 index gain 15% and even gold accrue 8% returns, only making a fool of themselves. According to Pechman, it is stupid to bet on a crisis, while the central bank is adding liquidity.
That’s why Bitcoin’s hard-locked monetary policies are so important. So, when you hear someone calling for $100,000 Bitcoin by year’s end, it partially comes from the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Pechman then proceeds to explain why the money that will eventually flow to Bitcoin (BTC) comes from gold, real estate and bond markets.
Lastly, Pechman shows why the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval is so important and essential for a $200,000 bull run.
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