A 40-minute window on October 10 turned into one of the biggest crypto liquidations ever – over $19.3 billion wiped out in hours. Prices of wrapped assets on Binance suddenly collapsed, triggering mass liquidations and confusion across the market.
Binance called it a technical glitch. But on-chain analysts say the timing, data, and money flow tell a different story.
What’s the conspiracy theory that’s got Crypto Twitter buzzing?
It Started With a Binance Update
On October 6, Binance announced it would change how it priced two key wrapped assets – wBETH and BNSOL – starting mid-month. It seemed like a routine update but for some analysts, that post was the start of a predictable setup.
“That created a four-day window (Oct 10–14) where thin books could be smashed to nuke collateral across futures, margin, and loans,” StarPlatinum wrote on X.
Billions Moved Just Before the Crash
In the 24–48 hours before October 10, on-chain data showed over $10 billion moving into exchange wallets. Researchers linked several of these inflows to Binance-labeled addresses – 0xdfd529, 0x28c6c0, and 0x21a31e – suggesting major pre-positioning before the crash.
At the same time, Coinbase moved 1,066 BTC (worth around $130 million before the drop) from cold to hot storage just minutes before the event. Analysts say it could be routine liquidity movement but the timing raised eyebrows.
The 40-Minute Meltdown
Between 21:36 and 22:16 UTC, Binance markets broke down.
- USDe dropped to $0.6567 on Binance, while staying near $0.90-$0.95 elsewhere.
- wBETH fell to around $430, an 88% crash from ETH parity.
- BNSOL hit $34.9, about 82% down from SOL parity.
These sharp drops happened only on Binance, according to some. Other exchanges and DeFi pools stayed mostly stable. That’s what made traders suspicious – the depegs seemed local, not market-wide.
Within hours, Binance rushed to push an oracle fix earlier (from October 14 to 11) and announced a $283 million compensation plan for affected users.
Missing Market Makers, Massive Shorts
During the drop, big market makers like Wintermute and Jump were missing from Binance’s order books. A new account reportedly opened $1.1 billion in BTC and ETH shorts right before the crash, with profits estimated at $160-200 million.
Binance insists it was a data-feed issue, not manipulation. But many in the community remain unconvinced.
Or Was Binance the Target?
Not everyone thinks Binance caused the crash. Prominent journalist Colin Wu suggested the October 11 event looked more like a coordinated hit aimed directly at Binance and one of its top market makers.
He said attackers likely exploited a weak point in Binance’s Unified Account margin system, which allowed traders to use volatile assets – like USDE, wBETH, and BNSOL – as collateral instead of stable options like USDT. When those assets depegged, margin values collapsed, setting off a chain reaction of forced liquidations.
Wu’s analysis described the crash as “timed perfectly,” hitting between Binance’s oracle update announcement on Oct 6 and its rollout on Oct 14 – giving attackers an open window to strike.
Whether it was a technical mishap or a targeted play, the October event exposed a hard truth: when billions in collateral depend on one exchange’s internal pricing, even a few minutes of imbalance can shake the entire market.
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