The U.S. government has officially shut down, and markets are starting to feel the effects. Investors are bracing for uncertainty as there are concerns that key economic reports could be delayed and volatility is expected to rise in the markets.
Read on to learn more about market impact and the crypto outlook.
Shutdown Begins, Markets React
U.S. equity futures slipped after lawmakers failed to pass a funding bill, triggering the shutdown. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also dropped 0.5%, the dollar weakened for a fourth day, and gold hit a record above $3,875 an ounce.
The shutdown stems from a clash between Democrats and President Trump over healthcare spending. Trump added pressure by saying many federal workers could be permanently fired.
Bloomberg reports that the Congressional Budget Office estimates 750,000 workers could be furloughed (temporarily put on unpaid leave), costing about $400 million a day in lost pay. This could slow spending and hurt the economy.
Markets Brace for Volatility
Analysts expect this shutdown to last one to two weeks with limited economic impact if resolved quickly.
The last U.S. government shutdown was in December 2018 and lasted 35 days, the longest ever. While shutdowns pause many government functions, they rarely hurt the stock market over the long term. In fact, the S&P 500 went up in 86% of shutdowns a year later.
In the short term, however, shutdowns often spark turbulence. Gold, already up 45% year-to-date, continues to climb as investors seek safe-haven assets, while the U.S. dollar is on track for its worst year since 1973.
Bitcoin is holding strong at $116,419, up more than 3% in the past 24 hours Bitcoin’s reaction to past U.S. government shutdowns has been mixed. The total crypto market cap also sits at $4.09 trillion, up 3% over the last day.
With the Federal Reserve cutting rates while inflation remains high, investors are chasing higher-yield assets, creating conditions for more market swings.
Key Economic Data at Risk?
The shutdown could delay key economic reports like jobs data (Oct. 3), trade balance (Oct. 7), CPI (Oct. 15), and PPI (Oct. 16). These numbers are what the market relies on to track growth, inflation, and the Fed’s next moves.
Experts warn that if the shutdown blocks important economic data, even small setbacks could trigger a market correction.
Will Crypto ETF Approvals Be Delayed?
The shutdown might stall progress on crypto ETF approvals.
Nate Geraci, President of NovaDius Wealth Management, noted that some issuers were hoping for approval of a spot SOL ETF next week, but the shutdown could disrupt that timeline.
Crypto traders are watching closely.
Trader Doctor Profit warns that this could delay key reports like NFP and CPI just weeks before the Fed’s October meeting. He also pointed out that quarterly options are expiring, which has protected the market from downside shocks for months.
With less protection and thinner liquidity, volatility could spike, making the market more unpredictable in the coming weeks.
