The crypto market edged higher today after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, fueling optimism across risk assets. Bitcoin price today is trading around $117,000, while Ethereum holds steady near $4,600. The broader crypto market cap rose modestly, with major altcoins mixed but stable.
Analysts note the short-term tone is constructive, supported by ETF inflows and macro easing, but caution remains as traders wait for a clear trigger to unlock the next phase of the bull cycle.
Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen described the current cycle as “one of the most boring bull markets we’ve ever seen.” He highlighted why history suggests that October 2025 could be decisive for Bitcoin, with a potential cycle top forming between October and December.
“Normally, cycles end in Q4 of the post-halving year,” Cowen explained, referencing previous tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
Why Altcoin Season Hasn’t Arrived Yet
Despite growing calls for an altcoin rally, Cowen stressed that the timeline is being misunderstood.
“It was first Bitcoin to ETH, and now there’s a rotation back to Bitcoin. The altseason calls are premature,” he said.
According to him, a true altcoin season, the kind seen in late 2017 and 2021, requires Ethereum to break and hold durable all-time highs. Until ETH reclaims its 21-week EMA and rallies into sustained highs, the market will remain Bitcoin-led.
October Is Bitcoin’s Month
Cowen pointed out a consistent historical trend: Bitcoin dominance bottoms in September and rises sharply in October.
“Bitcoin dominance normally reverses course in September and then explodes higher in October,” he said, adding that this pattern strengthens the case for a Bitcoin-driven month ahead.
Institutions Driving, Retail Still Missing
Another defining feature of this cycle is the lack of retail mania.
“Retail really doesn’t care… we just have the same investors from four years ago. This cycle is more ETF-driven, institutionally driven,” Cowen observed.
While Wall Street capital has fueled Bitcoin’s climb, smaller traders remain cautious, still waiting for altcoin profits.
Q4 Strategy: Conservative Allocation
Looking ahead, Cowen suggests a conservative allocation focused on risk-adjusted returns:
“Around 83% Bitcoin, 17% ETH—about an 80/20 split,” he said.
He expects Bitcoin to outperform altcoins in the near term, with Ethereum taking the lead only if it breaks out into sustained new highs.
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FAQs
A true altcoin season requires Ethereum to reach and hold new all-time highs. Currently, the market is primarily Bitcoin-led, driven by institutional interest and ETF inflows.
Institutional capital, especially from new Bitcoin ETFs, is a major driver of this bull cycle. This is different from past cycles, which were fueled more by retail investors.
Lack of retail hype and altcoin rallies makes this cycle subdued, driven by institutional ETF investments rather than widespread mania.
