On September 17, the Federal Reserve is set to deliver its first historic rate cut since 2024. Investors are split, will this spark a new rally or trigger a sharp pullback?
Meanwhile, Veteran trader Ted believes this decision could be the turning point, outlining two possible scenarios for Bitcoin.
Why the Fed Decision Matters
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a 95% chance of a 25 basis-point cut. Some traders even wish for a deeper 50 bps cut, which would add more fuel to risk assets.
However, a rate cut usually weakens the U.S. dollar and supports assets like gold and Bitcoin.
But Ted warns this might not be a simple “bullish signal” for crypto bulls. He feels the setup looks like a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation, where markets first dump before making a strong recovery.
Two Bitcoin Key Scenarios
September has turned out differently for Bitcoin than most traders expected. Instead of following its usual bearish pattern, the bitcoin is up nearly by 6% this month.
Last week’s strong performance pushed prices into a tough zone between $115,000 and $117,200, a level where sellers have historically stepped in.
Thus Ted’s chart highlights two possible scenarios for Bitcoin post-Fed decision.
Scenario 1: Bitcoin could drop to around $104,000 before bouncing back and climbing toward new highs.
Scenario 2: A deeper correction takes BTC near $92,000, where a CME futures gap also remains unfilled, before bouncing back and aiming for a new all-time high.
In both scenarios, Ted expects Bitcoin to eventually recover and climb to fresh highs, but the path to get there could test investors’ patience.
Bitcoin: Calm Before the Storm
Adding to the uncertainty, JP Morgan and other major analysts echo Ted’s cautious outlook, expecting a market dump before any recovery. Whales have already been selling heavily, and ETF inflows have slowed, putting extra pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
For now, all eyes remain on the Fed’s announcement.
As the countdown begins, Bitcoin currently stands at $115,391 seeing a slight jump in the last 24 hours with a market cap hitting $2.30 trillion.
