Bitcoin’s latest slump is being pinned on Jerome Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech, but analysts argue the real pressure isn’t Fed talk, it’s cash being pulled from the system. Washington’s Treasury General Account (TGA) refill is quietly draining $400 billion of liquidity, shaking both crypto and equity markets harder than Powell’s words ever could.
How the Treasury’s Bank Account Works
The TGA acts like the U.S. government’s savings account. When the Treasury spends from it, on salaries, bills, or benefits, that cash circulates back into the economy, giving markets a liquidity boost. But when the Treasury decides to rebuild the account, it sells bonds and removes money from the system. Officials now aim to raise $500–$600 billion in the coming months, creating one of the largest liquidity squeezes in recent memory.
Bitcoin Feels the Heat
Bitcoin, which recently touched highs above $124,000, has dropped more than 8% to near $113,500. Ethereum, XRP, and Solana followed suit. Stocks have also cooled; the Nasdaq slid nearly 1.4% after hitting fresh records, proving how tightly risk assets move with liquidity shifts.
For leveraged traders, the pain was sharp. Over $270 million in positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, including $170 million in ETH and $104 million in BTC. Nearly 95% of these were long bets, triggered by moderate 2–3% pullbacks. Ethereum’s short-term implied volatility jumped from 68% to 73%, signaling expectations of more turbulence ahead.
Jackson Hole vs. Treasury Liquidity
While the liquidity drain is the main story, traders can’t ignore Jerome Powell’s Friday remarks at Jackson Hole. Odds of a September rate cut have dropped sharply, and a hawkish tone could spark further corrections. Still, sentiment hasn’t flipped entirely bearish.
Coinbase’s David Duong explained that Powell’s speech is more of a convenient excuse: “Jackson Hole and PPI are just excuses for market players to trim risk ahead of the U.S. Treasury’s TGA liquidity drain (~$400B) in the weeks ahead.”
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit now gives Bitcoin a 21% chance of hitting $100,000 by September and Ethereum a 60% shot at holding above $4,000.
Why This Time Hurts More
Unlike past liquidity squeezes, today’s system lacks strong buffers. In 2023, banks had deeper reserves, the Fed’s reverse repo facility held excess cash, and foreign buyers eagerly absorbed U.S. debt. Fast forward to 2025, and those cushions are gone. Banks are stretched, foreign demand for Treasuries has faded, and extra liquidity has dried up. As Delphi Digital’s Marcus Wu points out, that makes this TGA rebuild far more disruptive.
For Bitcoin bulls hoping for another explosive rally, the real battle isn’t Powell’s speech, it’s the Treasury’s massive cash drain. Until new liquidity flows back into markets, Bitcoin may struggle to recapture its recent highs.
