US data to be announced in the next 72 hours and the balance sheets of major technology companies may affect pricing in a wide range of markets, from stocks to bonds, from foreign currency to crypto assets. The focus in the markets will be the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday.
The main agenda of the week is macro data
Analyst Bull Theory states that seven important developments will follow in a few days, increasing the likelihood of sharp market movements. As an analysis account that shares market commentary, Bull Theory draws attention to the fact that the macro data calendar and company balance sheets are concentrated in the same week.
The next 72 hours could determine which direction markets go for the rest of the quarter.
The week will start with US consumer confidence data to be released on Tuesday. Weak data may indicate that households are cutting their spending, which may increase concerns about economic growth.
On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the FOMC interest rate decision. Investors will closely monitor not only the interest rate but also the US Federal Reserve’s inflation and growth projections. The probability of an interest rate change at this meeting is priced at approximately 35% in the markets.
The PCE Price Index to be announced on Thursday is also among the critical headlines of the week. The Fed pays special attention to this indicator when assessing inflation. The expectation for the US growth data to be released on the same day is between 2.1% and 2.2%.
| Day | Development | highlight |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | Consumer confidence | Signal of slowdown in spending |
| Wednesday | FOMC interest rate decision | Interest rate path and Fed messages |
| Thursday | PCE and GDP | Inflation and growth balance |
| Friday | Michigan consumer confidence | Inflation expectations |
The most negative scenario for the markets is considered to be the simultaneous occurrence of low growth and high inflation. Such a situation may increase stagflation concerns. Inflation expectations will be especially monitored in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index, which will be announced on Friday.
In addition to macro data, Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon balance sheets are among the topics that may increase uncertainty in the markets. The results of these companies may be particularly decisive on risk appetite.
Microsoft and Meta will announce their financial results this week. The profit expectation per share for Meta is between $7.18 and $7.24, and the revenue expectation is approximately $60.2 billion. Investors will focus on artificial intelligence investments, advertising performance and forward-looking expectations of companies, as well as income and expense items.
High inflation, weak corporate expectations or tighter messages from the Fed could increase global selling pressure.
Apple and Amazon balance sheets will arrive on Thursday. While the earnings per share expectation for Apple is 1.88 dollars, this estimate for Amazon is between 1.81 dollars and 1.85 dollars. On the Amazon front, AWS performance will be closely monitored in terms of enterprise cloud demand and the extent to which artificial intelligence is used. On the Apple side, iPhone sales, service revenues and artificial intelligence strategy stand out.
Bull Theory predicts that if growth remains strong, inflation declines and balance sheets support expectations, there may be purchases in risky assets, including crypto assets. On the other hand, higher inflation, weak corporate guidance or harsh tone messages from the Fed could increase selling pressure in global markets.
