While Bitcoin was trading around $64,047, the market’s focus turned to the $64,850 level. This region stands out as the intersection of the 50-day exponential moving average and the daily volume weighted average. Bitcoin could not exceed this level in the last two attempts and indecision in the short-term outlook continued.
Critical threshold before Fed decision
Timing also adds to the uncertainty. The US Central Bank, the Fed, will announce its interest rate decision on July 29 and then hold a press conference. The Fed left the interest rate constant at its June meeting. The recent resurgence of inflation concerns and question marks regarding the interest rate path have led to a cautious course in crypto assets.
The main question for Bitcoin in the short term is whether $64,850 can become support again before the Fed decision.
Technical evaluations in the market indicate that a band has formed between $63,750 and $64,854. The RSI, the relative strength index, is at 49.27. This view shows that neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage. The weakening in the MACD histogram also indicated that the upward momentum was losing strength.
Support and resistance zones stand out
In the short term, $63,335 is watched as an important support. Below this level, the $62,500 and $61,250 bands may come to the fore. On the other hand, some analysts think that the reaction from the $63,100 to $63,700 range did not completely disrupt the structure.
In this more positive scenario, the ascending channel support, the buy zone near $63,130, and the price gap between $62,471 and $63,715 are converging in the same area. Additionally, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level makes this region more technically remarkable.
Mini dictionary: D VWAP shows the average price calculated by weighting transactions for the day by volume. Fibonacci level 0.618 is considered one of the main areas in technical analysis where the price can react after correction.
Some technical indicators suggest that the selling pressure may weaken and the $63,100 to $63,700 zone may be defended in the short term.
Pressure continues on the broader table
A more cautious picture stands out on the four-hour chart. Analysts are watching the $66,000 to $67,200 range as the main resistance zone. It is considered that as long as Bitcoin remains below this area, the recovery may remain limited.
Below, the $63,800 to $64,000 range is seen as the first support zone. If this area cannot be protected, $62,000, then $58,000 and $56,600 levels may be brought to the agenda.
Indicators do not give clear direction
In TradingView data, the overall technical summary gives a neutral outlook. Among the total signals, there are 12 sell, 10 neutral and four buy signals. While the picture remains more balanced in the oscillator group, the ADX indicator being at 18 indicates a horizontal compression rather than a strong trend.
While some of the short-term moving averages produce a sell signal, some medium-term averages support the buy direction. Therefore, although it is possible for the outlook to improve if $ 64,850 is exceeded, the range between $ 66,000 and $ 67,200 stands out as the next big test. On the other hand, falling below $62,471 is viewed as the main threshold that will weaken the positive scenario.
