While Bitcoin transaction volumes remained relatively weak in the first half of 2026, asset management company VanEck reported that the real remarkable development in the market emerged in the supply structure. According to the company’s assessment, 60.8% of Bitcoin in circulation has not moved on the blockchain in more than 12 months. This rate stands out as one of the highest levels on a historical scale.
Most of the supply remained dormant
VanEck treats this data as an on-chain indicator that measures the supply held by long-term investors. The approach is similar to the methods commonly used by Glassnode. The company interprets this picture as Bitcoin being more of a macro asset in the eyes of investors, rather than being a short-term trading tool.
Mini dictionary: On-chain data refers to transactions and wallet movements of a crypto asset that can be directly tracked on the blockchain. Long-term investor supply gives a clue to the strength of selling pressure by measuring the amount of coins that have not moved at all over a certain period of time.
VanEck also emphasized that hundreds of thousands of BTC are now stored in spot Bitcoin ETFs issued by major institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity. This indicates that a significant portion of the total supply in the market has actually been withdrawn from active order books on exchanges.
VanEck emphasizes that there is a tightening supply table underneath the calm outlook in the summer of 2026, and 60.8% of Bitcoin in circulation has not moved for over a year.
Institutional demand could sharpen price movements
For fund managers and investors, this structure raises the risk that price movements will become more severe if liquidity shrinks. Sudden volume increases could lead to stronger fluctuations in thinner order books, especially if inflows from ETFs and company balance sheets continue.
In VanEck’s assessment, it was noted that this outlook shows that Bitcoin maintains its importance not only as a speculative tool but also as collateral. On the other hand, it was stated that long-term investors can sell at levels they deem appropriate, while ETF money flows will continue to depend on market sentiment.
All eyes on interest rate policy and third quarter ETF flows
The company believes that institutional accumulation and limited individual investor transactions through 2026 may support this stable outlook. While the expectation of shallower order books on the stock exchange side stands out, the main factors that may determine the direction of the market include US interest rate policy and ETF flows in the third quarter.
According to VanEck, the low volatility environment is shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional accumulation continuing through 2026, and weak individual investor transactions.
VanEck, as an asset management company operating on a global scale, is known especially for its work in the field of exchange traded funds and digital asset products. The company’s latest assessment shows that although the volume in the Bitcoin market remains weak, the contraction on the supply side is being closely monitored.
