Global asset management company VanEck reported that the short and long-term outlook in the Bitcoin market is significantly different from each other. The company published on July 20, “Mid-July 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report While cautious positioning in derivative markets indicates that selling pressure may continue in the short term, the high amount of BTC held by long-term investors supports the structural outlook.
VanEck’s report prepared by Patrick Bush, Matthew Sigel and Griffin MacMaster stated that Bitcoin consolidated at approximately $63,700 in July. BTC price remained largely unchanged on a monthly basis, remaining 33 percent below its six-month peak and approximately 14 percent below its 200-day moving average. Volatility in the last 30 days decreased to 30.4 percent on an annualized basis.
Fall Concerns Continue in the Options Market
According to the report, demand for put contracts, which provide protection against downward price movements in Bitcoin options, stands out. Although the total option premium paid in the last month decreased by 23 percent to 613.6 million dollars, the put/call premium ratio increased to 1.49. This rate corresponds to a level higher than 90 percent of the values observed since 2021.
The difference between the implied volatility of one-month put and call options also increased from 9.8 points to 11.4 points. VanEck pointed out that the level in question is in a range that has historically seen below-average Bitcoin returns. The report evaluated that investors may be financing put contracts that provide downside protection by selling call options that reflect bullish expectations.
The 30-day average funding rate in perpetual futures contracts was also measured at approximately 4.5 percent on an annualized basis. Positive funding indicates that investors holding long positions are paying off short position holders. However, the current rate is about half of the long-term average of 8.4 percent.
According to VanEck, the fact that the put/call volatility difference in options does not exceed 15 points and the funding rates do not turn negative shows that the market has not yet experienced a surrender to the extent seen at historical bottoms. The company stated that under these conditions, the possibility of continued downward pressure rather than a rapid recovery in the near and medium term stands out.
Long-Term Investors Hold Their Bitcoins
On-chain data revealed a more positive picture than the derivatives market. The amount of Bitcoin held for more than a year reached 12.2 million BTC, 60.8 percent of the circulating supply. Additionally, approximately 3.55 million BTC, accounting for 17.7 percent of the total supply, is in the six to 12-month holding group.
VanEck stated that more than 60 percent of the Bitcoin supply in circulation is in the hands of long-term investors, and periods when this rate increases have historically been associated with above-average returns. However, while activity has increased in some Bitcoins held for three to 10 years in the last month, the selling trend remained more limited in BTCs held for one to two years and more than 10 years.
Data in the report shows that short-term investors continue to hedge against downside risk, while the oldest Bitcoin investors have largely left their assets unmoved. This divergence indicates that price pressure has not completely ended in the near term, but long-term salable supply may remain limited.
