Bitcoin showed a strong performance compared to traditional markets, rising above $65,000 despite the sharp sales in technology stocks and the rise in US bond yields. While the ongoing inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs supported the rise, the high amount of transfers made by large investors to stock exchanges and corporate trading platforms showed that the cautious outlook in the market has not completely disappeared.
The Nasdaq 100 index fell below 20,800 points for the first time in five weeks due to concerns about high valuations in artificial intelligence companies and profit sales concentrated in chip stocks. Bitcoin, on the other hand, exceeded the level of 65 thousand dollars in the same period and differentiated positively from the stock markets.
Recovery in Asian markets supported risk appetite
Asian stock markets made a strong recovery, led by semiconductor and technology stocks, after three consecutive days of losses. While the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.2 percent, gains in South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s Taiex indexes approached 4 percent.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 2.7 percent after entering the correction zone on Friday. Technology stocks in mainland China gained approximately 7 percent as state-backed institutions stepped in to support the market.
US Nasdaq 100 futures also rose 1 percent following a rise in semiconductor stocks on Wall Street. On the other hand, European markets are expected to open with light sales as investors focus on company balance sheets.
Diplomatic attempts to reduce tensions in the Middle East led to a retreat in oil prices. After Iran announced that it was evaluating the proposals offered by mediators, Brent oil fell by 0.7 percent to $88.58 per barrel. News that conflicts could be suspended for 10 days also contributed to the improvement of the general risk perception.
Bitcoin may be undervalued based on historical data
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the historical percentile rank of the MVRV indicator, which compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, decreased to approximately 5 percent.
Unlike the traditional MVRV indicator, this measurement reveals the current value’s position over past market cycles. The 5 percent level means that Bitcoin has had higher MVRV values for approximately 95 percent of its trading history.
According to Darkfost, the current outlook indicates that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued compared to its historical performance. Although similar levels have been seen to coincide with long-term bottom areas in previous periods, it is emphasized that the indicator alone does not guarantee a short-term rise.
High amount transfers from Whales to Cumberland and Binance
Onchain data shared by OnchainLens showed that some large investors who had been dormant for a long time are moving their Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings again.
A whale, who has been accumulating Bitcoin for about six years, moved 2 thousand BTC with a total value of $ 130.5 million to different addresses. 800 BTC of the transfer, worth approximately $52.2 million, was sent to Cumberland, which provides over-the-counter trading services to institutional investors. The remaining 1,200 BTC was transferred to a newly created wallet.
Another former investor, who has been accumulating Bitcoin since November 2013 and gradually reducing his holdings over the past year, also sent 1,000 BTC to Binance after nearly four months of silence. The transfer, worth approximately $65.56 million, was evaluated as a possible sale preparation in the market.
On the Ethereum side, an address that has not been active for 11 months transferred 9 thousand ETH worth $17.19 million to the Cumberland wallet. It was reported that the same address had previously sent a total of 50 thousand ETH to FalconX in 13 transactions, and that these assets were worth approximately $205.67 million at the time the transfers were made.
Although transfers to stock exchanges or institutional trading platforms increase the possibility of sales, they do not necessarily mean that assets will be sold in the open market. Organizations such as Cumberland and FalconX also facilitate the execution of large transactions over the counter without putting direct pressure on the market price.
$226.8 million inflow into Bitcoin ETFs
Spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the US recorded a total net inflow of $226.8 million on July 20, according to data from Farside Investors. Thus, the funds’ positive streak was carried to the fifth trading day.
BlackRock’s IBIT fund led the daily inflows with $116.5 million. Ark Invest’s ARKB fund received $72.7 million, Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust received $41.4 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC fund received $24.1 million.
Bitwise’s BITB fund saw net inflows of $8.8 million, Morgan Stanley’s MSBT product saw $6.9 million and VanEck’s HODL fund saw net inflows of $1.8 million. In contrast, there was an outflow of $45.4 million from Grayscale’s GBTC fund.
Spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded a total net inflow of $38 million on the same day. While BlackRock’s ETHA fund accounted for the majority of inflows with $34.3 million, $2.8 million was transferred to FETH and $900 thousand to TETH.
Derivative investors approach the rise cautiously
Despite the rise in Bitcoin price, there was no overly optimistic positioning in the derivative markets. The annualized funding rate on perpetual futures contracts remained at 8 percent on July 20. Rates above 12 percent, which indicate an over-leveraged rise expectation, have not been seen since July 10.
Bitcoin’s 30-day options delta slope was measured at 13 percent on Deribit. This ratio shows that put options that protect against price declines are traded at a higher premium than bullish call options.
Although the indicator decreased from the 19 percent level recorded a week ago, it indicates that large investors continue to demand protection against downside risks.
Strategy’s cash reserves increased to 3.22 billion dollars
Strategy raised $263 million in cash as a result of its common share sale last week, increasing its total cash reserves to $3.22 billion.
There were concerns that the company might sell Bitcoin to cover its $1.76 billion annual preferred stock dividend and pay off its $2.6 billion total of convertible bonds maturing in 2028 and 2029. It is evaluated that the increase in cash reserves may reduce the possibility of selling Bitcoin in the short term.
However, macroeconomic risks continue. The US five-year bond yield rose to 4.33 percent from 4.22 percent two weeks ago. The Trump administration’s preparations to impose new 50 percent customs duties on some Canadian products have also increased uncertainties regarding global trade.
Gold, on the other hand, rose 1 percent to approximately $4,050 per ounce, as safe haven demand continued despite the recovery in stocks.
If Bitcoin remains above $65,000 and ETF inflows continue, the level of $70,000 may come to the fore again. However, whale transfers, hedging demand in the options market, high bond yields and geopolitical risks originating from the Middle East indicate that price movements may remain volatile in the short term.
