Glassnode data shows that on-chain signals may re-occur in the Bitcoin market that could point to the next bearish bottom. The change in the selling trend, especially at the expense of investors who bought BTC one to two years ago, is being closely monitored to understand whether the harshest distribution phase of the market is behind us.
Data on damage incurred came to the fore
Glassnode chief research analyst Cryptovizart, in his evaluation on Glassnode is known as an on-chain data platform that analyzes market behavior by examining blockchain data.
Cryptovizart highlights that the cooling and downward reversal in the 30-day average of one- to two-year investors’ realized losses is among the clearest early signals that the heaviest sell-off phase is behind us.
The coin movements carried by investors in this group at a loss were last seen between July 2024 and July 2025. During the same period, BTC price increased from approximately $62,800 to $107,000. On the other hand, due to the weak price performance experienced subsequently, it is understood that a significant portion of the investors who purchased during this period remained below cost again.
According to Cryptovizart, the fact that prices continue to remain below expectations increases the disappointment in this group of investors and increases sales at a loss over time. However, if this pressure begins to weaken in the 30-day moving average, it may indicate that the final stage of sell-side surrender may be approaching.
The $75 million threshold was exceeded
In the shared chart, a significant jump was seen in the realized losses of one to two-year investors on the basis of the 30-day moving average. Total losses have recently begun to recede after rising above $75 million. The analyst considers this turn as a development that should be watched carefully.
Although this indicator alone is not considered sufficient for investors trying to understand the timing of the macro bottom in Bitcoin, it has become one of the prominent headlines in the on-chain view. Analysts monitoring possible direction changes in the market look to see if different technical and on-chain benchmarks produce similar signals.
$69,000 could be a new resistance area
In Glassnode’s The Week Onchain newsletter, the total cost basis for short-term investors was also highlighted as the next important area of resistance for the bulls. This level corresponds to approximately $69,000. The same zone also coincides with former all-time highs from the 2021 bull cycle.
Glassnode states that the first contact to the $69,000 level may cause a strong market reaction, because the segment most prone to sell consists of investors approaching the breakeven point.
Short-term investors are generally used for market participants who purchased their coins within the last 155 days. The average cost of this group is closely monitored as it shows in which regions the price may encounter resistance.
On the other hand, stochastic RSI data in the two-month period also indicates that classical market reversal conditions have occurred. The fact that on-chain data and technical indicators produce a similar picture in the same period causes investors to focus more on the price behavior around 69 thousand dollars in the coming period.
