After the sharp losses in the first half of 2026, Bitcoin reacted at a level that is notable in the long-term technical outlook. According to the Logarithmic Growth Curve, which pseudonymous analyst Dave the Wave has used unchanged since 2018, the price re-touched the lower band drawn eight years ago and showed an upward movement from there.
Long-term curve is on the agenda again
On the monthly chart published on TradingView, Bitcoin traded around $64,443 on Tuesday. The asset rose nearly 10% during the month before falling to $57,750. This low coincided almost exactly with the lower green band on the analyst’s curve.
Dave the Wave stands out as an analyst in the crypto market known for his long-term technical frameworks. The model he uses considers the Bitcoin price within a wide channel over time. With this approach, the very sharp increases seen in the early periods are expected to become more limited as the market matures.
Mini glossary: The Logarithmic Growth Curve is a long-term technical model that assumes the rate of price growth slows over time. In such charts, equal vertical distances represent the same proportional change, not the same dollar difference.
The chart indicates that the current bear market remains more limited than previous large declines and the price has returned to the structural support zone.
Similarity with previous bottoms is established
In the model, the lower band is seen as a buying zone for long-term investors. The upper band previously marked two separate cycle tops, while the lower band served as support at the March 2020 and November 2022 lows. July 2026 is considered the third important test of this structure.
Comparing two separate 12-month periods on the analyst’s chart shows that the support test in 2022 occurred with volume of 11.21 million, while the current retest remains at volume of 4.28 million.
| To compare | previous period | current period |
|---|---|---|
| Support test | November 2022 | July 2026 |
| Volume | 11.21 million | 4.28 million |
| monthly movement | Recovery after the bottom | Approximately 10% increase |
The return of the price to the same buying zone, the retest with lower volume and the double-digit monthly rise present a picture compatible with the formation of a bottom in terms of the model.
Depth of decline remained below previous cycles
Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% since its peak of around $126,000 in October 2025. This rate remains below the sharp declines of 75% to 90% seen at the end of past cycles. According to the analyst, this difference coincides with corrections becoming less disruptive as the market grows.
The model’s further projection includes a range of $140,000 to $200,000 towards the end of the decade. In the longer term, a range of 500,000 to 1 million dollars is indicated in a ten-year perspective. On the other hand, it is emphasized that return rates are expected to compress in each cycle.
Confirmation has not yet occurred in the technical outlook
Despite this, the picture is not clear. Bitcoin closed a full week below its 200-week moving average in late June, signaling long-term weakness for the first time since 2023. Such breakouts have been seen in deeper bear markets in the past.
The fluctuation of the price in the low $60,000 band on Tuesday does not necessarily indicate that the support test has been confirmed. From a technical perspective, this level needs to be maintained. If there is a significant return below the curve, the current setup may become obsolete.
Still, for a market that hit its lowest level in 21 months in June, it is considered remarkable that the debate has shifted from new lows to whether the current base can be maintained. This outlook strengthened the assessment that we are approaching the final part of the bear market rather than its middle.
