Bitcoin has followed a trend close to its historical average so far in July. Market analyst Daan Crypto Trades states that the third quarter was the weakest period of the year for Bitcoin according to historical data, and the average return during this period remained at approximately 6%.
Weakening transaction volume in the summer months
In the market, this outlook is generally associated with falling trading volume in the summer months, weakening liquidity and declining participation ahead of the last quarter of the year. Volatility often regains strength in the last quarter, making this period more cautious for investors.
With the latest correction, BTC has retreated to the long-watched demand zone. This area starts from the middle 55 thousand dollars band and extends to the low 70 thousand dollars region. The range in question has played a decisive role in the direction of the market since 2021, first as resistance and after the break in 2024 as support.
Although BTC has retreated significantly from its peak of $110,000, it is considered that the selling pressure may be weakening as the price approaches the bottom of the band.
Technical indicators point to the possibility of a reversal
Analyst Chris notes that he sees negative divergence in the weekly Relative Strength Index. A rise in the RSI indicator as the Bitcoin price produces lower lows could indicate a market structure that is starting to lose downside momentum.
The falling wedge formation also stands out on the chart. This structure is often associated with the possibility of an upward reversal in technical analysis. Bitcoin’s stay near the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud is also being watched for support. A possible breakout from the formation may increase the possibility of an upward movement.
Mini dictionary: Ichimoku Cloud is a technical analysis tool that aims to show the trend direction with support and resistance zones. A falling wedge indicates that the price is stuck in a narrowing downward structure and if there is a breakout, a change in direction may come to the fore.
The range of 64 to 70 is observed in Bitcoin dominance
Another focus in the market has been the dominance rate, which shows how much of the total cryptocurrency market is concentrated in Bitcoin. Crypto Patel says that Bitcoin dominance has returned to the 64% to 70% range and that this region stood out as the top area in previous cycles. Bitcoin dominance is tracked as one of the key indicators that shows how much of the total crypto market value belongs to Bitcoin.
After the rejection from this region in 2018 and 2021, strong increases were seen in altcoins. The peak level recorded recently was approximately 64.1%. Analysts evaluate that interest in altcoins may increase if the 70% resistance cannot be overcome and the long-term upward line weakens.
| Indicator | Level | featured meaning |
|---|---|---|
| BTC demand zone | $55 thousand to $70 thousand | Watched as a support area |
| previous peak | 110 thousand dollars | Level at which correction begins |
| Bitcoin dominance | 64% to 70% | Critical threshold for altcoin interest |
While the rejection zones seen in previous cycles in Bitcoin dominance are being retested, it is considered that this structure may create a new area of interest for altcoins.
The coming weeks may be decisive in the search for direction
The emergence of more than one technical signal in the same period keeps the possibility of a strong directional change in Bitcoin within the current trading cycle. What happens in the next few weeks could affect both Bitcoin’s course and whether the market will enter a broader altcoin cycle.
