Although Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery after recent declines, on-chain data shows that the bullish cycle is not yet confirmed. While the technical outlook is improving in the short term, some key blockchain indicators point to the market still remaining in the accumulation phase.
Three indicators still in negative territory
Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez, in his assessment on July 11, 2026, states that Bitcoin is still in the weak zone due to three important on-chain indicators. Martinez states that the aSOPR minus 1 times 10, Puell Multiple minus 1 and Reserve Risk Multiple minus 1 indicators continue to remain below zero.
Mini dictionary: aSOPR is an indicator that measures whether Bitcoins carried on-chain change hands with a profit or a loss. Puell Multiple tracks miner revenues against the historical average, while Reserve Risk is used to evaluate the balance between long-term investor confidence and price.
These indicators provide signals about the state of the market in areas such as investor behavior, miner profitability and long-term confidence. The fact that all three data remain in the negative region suggests that a prolonged accumulation process is continuing in the market. This chart reveals that some investors are still selling at a loss, miner revenues remain under pressure, and long-term confidence has not fully returned.
Ali Martinez emphasizes that the first strong sign of a possible direction change in the market can be seen when the aSOPR indicator rises above zero again, and then if the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk indicators confirm this movement, the new Bitcoin bull cycle may begin.
Short-term technical outlook is recovering
Bitcoin is trading at $64,294 at the time of writing. The asset’s 24-hour trading volume is $20.37 billion and its market value is $1.29 trillion. The 0.69 percent increase recorded in the last 24 hours shows that despite the broad market uncertainty, buying interest has not completely disappeared.
Short-term technical indicators paint a more positive picture. While the RSI increased to 53.93, the RSI moving average was measured at 45.23. RSI rising above the neutral zone indicates that buying appetite is gaining strength without moving into the overbought zone.
A similar improvement is seen in the MACD indicator. While the MACD value was at minus 287.91, it rose above the signal line of minus 900.37. The fact that the histogram turned positive at 612.46 stands out as a development that supports the increase in purchasing power in the short term.
Although recovery continues, verification is missing
These data reveal that short-term recoveries in Bitcoin price may continue, but there is no clear confirmation yet for a broader upward cycle. Although it seems that buyers are gaining strength again on the technical side, on-chain measurements do not give an equally strong return signal.
Therefore, those who watch the market first look at whether the aSOPR indicator will rise above zero. In the next stage, the fact that Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk indicators also move in the same direction can be considered a stronger sign that Bitcoin has passed from a long accumulation phase to a new bull market.
If Bitcoin remains above current support levels, there may be additional bullish area in the coming days. However, the main determining factor in terms of the direction of the market will be whether the technical recovery will be supported by on-chain data.
