While the selling pressure on XRP continues, Binance data indicates that the decline expectation in the futures market has increased significantly. While the overall altcoin market remained weak, many assets remained close to historical lows. Although XRP is not fully included in this group, it has lost approximately 70% of its value since its peak of $ 2.45 in July 2025.
Sharp deterioration in funding rates
Derivative market indicators revealed that the negative expectation towards XRP has deepened in recent weeks. Funding rates tracked on Binance with a 30-day aggregate outlook have turned sharply negative. This chart indicated that more investors in the market held short positions, expecting a decline in the XRP price.
Darkfost said that this view has almost become a common opinion among derivatives investors. According to the analyst, XRP funding rates have been following a predominantly downward trend since the beginning of the year.
Darkfost emphasizes that the sharply negative turn in funding rates in XRP indicates a significant pessimism in the futures market, and that this trend has continued since the beginning of the year.
In the past, extremely negative funding rates, seen after sharp price corrections, sometimes occurred before changes in direction. Darkfost gave the period of April 2025 as an example. At that time, XRP recovered after falling to $1.25 and subsequently rose by 126%. However, it seems that current conditions do not exactly coincide with previous cycles, so a similar response is not certain.
Open position and market value decreased
The weak outlook was not limited to funding rates alone. The open position size in XRP futures decreased to $ 350.6 million and hit one of the lowest levels in recent months. This decline showed that leveraged investors closed their existing trades instead of adding new positions.
Mini dictionary: Funding rate refers to the periodic payment made to maintain the balance between long and short positions in the futures market. Open position shows the total amount of futures contracts that have not yet been closed.
CryptoQuant analyst Pelinay stated that the market value of XRP decreased to 10.89 billion dollars. The fact that the decline in market value and the decrease in open positions occurred at the same time indicated that both capital and risk appetite were withdrawn from the market.
| Indicator | Level | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Change from July 2025 peak | 70% drop | Long-term weak price outlook |
| open position | $350.6 million | Dissolution in leveraged transactions |
| Market value | $10.89 billion | Weak capital inflow |
| NVT ratio | 162.86 | Network activity not supporting valuation |
On-chain activity does not support price
The NVT ratio, which compares network value to transaction volume, also remained high. For XRP, this rate was measured at 162.86. This outlook showed that on-chain activity is not growing at the same pace as current valuation and network usage has yet to support a strong price recovery.
Pelinay states that the decrease in open positions and the decrease in market value should be evaluated together, and this table shows that the new purchasing desire in the market remains limited.
Although the extremely negative outlook in funding rates has occasionally coincided with bottom formations in the past, current data revealed that the cautious stance prevails in the XRP market. The shrinkage of positions in futures transactions and the contraction in market value suggest that sellers maintain their superiority in the short term.
