Stephan Livera, released on July 10, 2026 In the 755th episode of the Stephan Livera Podcast He hosted Checkonchain founder and on-chain data analyst James Check. The duo evaluated the decline in the Bitcoin market, investor behavior and the future of corporate Bitcoin companies.
Time pressure set in after price loss
Check emphasizes that bear markets wear out investors first with sharp price losses and then with long-term horizontal movements. According to the analyst, Bitcoin experienced a price-induced capitulation phase in February and is now going through a period of time pressure that tests the patience of less experienced investors.
“After price-induced capitulation, time pressure sets in. The flat and dull market forces the remaining weak investors to sell, often near the bottom.”
Despite Bitcoin falling nearly 50 percent from its peak, Check described the current period as the shallowest bear market ever. He emphasized that although on-chain loss rates and surrender indicators are similar to previous cycles, the price decline remains behind the 2015, 2018 and 2022 periods.
Spot buyers meet corporate sales
Check points out that even though Strategy company also sold Bitcoin at a time when there was a high outflow in spot Bitcoin ETFs, the price did not collapse. He interprets this picture as a sign that natural spot demand, whose name cannot be associated with specific institutions, continues to meet sales in the market.
“Bitcoin’s survival while ETFs and Strategy are sellers shows that there is a natural pool of spot buyers in the market.”
Check said that short-term investors who bought Bitcoin in the last five months also showed a different profile than previous periods, and stated that this group who bought in weak market conditions may consist of high-confidence investors. The decrease in sales of old investors who are in profit also indicates a tendency to wait or accumulate.
The 53 thousand dollar level stands out as the base
Check announced that the average obtained from eight different timing methods points to July for the bottom formation. The analyst argues that around $53,000 could form an increasingly stronger base.
Instead of trying to find the exact bottom, Check said, investors can focus on regular buying during periods when indicators fall in the lowest 10 percent to 15 percent of the historical distribution. However, he also underlines that his evaluations are not a definitive price or date estimate.
Few players may remain in Bitcoin companies
Predicting that most of the companies that copy the Bitcoin accumulation strategy will not be successful in the long term, Check thinks that the industry may turn into a structure dominated by a small number of large players. The analyst, who distinguished the Strategy company from others, warned that companies that are overly indebted and undertake high payment obligations may be forced to sell Bitcoin in the next bear markets.
