Bitcoin is generating two distinct technical signals that indicate a weak outlook on long-term charts. However, analysts think that similar structures have often been seen in the last part of the bear market in previous cycles and that the current picture may indicate a bottoming process rather than a new sharp decline.
Weekly intersection draws attention
One of the headlines that stood out in the market was the death cross seen on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. This structure occurs when the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average. In technical analysis, this intersection is generally considered a sign of weakening momentum and ongoing selling pressure.
Mini dictionary: A death cross is a technical signal that occurs when the short-term average falls below the long-term average. It does not determine direction alone; It is viewed more as confirmation of market weakness.
Analyst Jelle states that this signal in Bitcoin has historically often appeared in the advanced stages of bear markets. Previous death cross zones on the chart coincide with the final stages of major corrections in the past.
Jelle points out that although the weekly death cross signal may seem negative at first glance, it has often occurred near the last part of a bear market in Bitcoin history.
Therefore, although the current intersection confirms that the pressure in the market continues, it is not seen as a signal of a new collapse on its own. If the broad band that Bitcoin is in is maintained, it may be possible for the price to form a stronger base after remaining weak for a while.
The bottom zone debate is gaining strength
The second striking element in the long-term outlook was the oscillator region observed on the monthly macro chart. Analyst James reports that Bitcoin is retesting a long-term cycle area that has overlapped with significant bottoms in past years.
The chart shows that Bitcoin is moving within the long-term logarithmic growth channel and the price is hovering near the lower band of this structure. During the same period, the oscillator has also fallen back into the lower end zone previously seen at major cycle bottoms.
James emphasizes that the current macro structure does not confirm a short-term breakout, but in the long term, Bitcoin is closer to forming a bottom than the beginning of a new major decline.
Previous similar periods pointed out by the analyst were seen in 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2022. Following these phases, Bitcoin entered a broader recovery process. This similarity supports the view that the current structure can create a long-term accumulation area.
Confirmation has not come yet in the short term
However, analysts underline that current signals do not mean short-term bullish confirmation. For a more credible recovery scenario, Bitcoin needs to break above key moving averages, reclaim key resistance levels, and produce higher lows.
For now, the prominent picture is that the selling pressure continues but the market may be approaching the exhaustion phase. If Bitcoin maintains the current range and strengthens its structure, long-term recovery expectations may find further support.
