While Bitcoin has recently exhibited a weaker performance compared to US stocks, discussions about whether the market has hit the bottom or not have gained momentum again. Cryptocurrency analyst Niels argues that BTC may once again face sharp selling pressure before reaching the cycle bottom, which could be triggered by a possible disruption in equity markets.
BTC vs S&P 500 comparison highlighted
Niels points out that Bitcoin still lags behind US stocks, pointing to the BTC SPX ratio, which measures the relative performance between BTC and the S&P 500 index. According to the analyst, if there is a sharp decline in the stock market, a final surrender movement may be seen in Bitcoin. Niels thinks that after this stage, BTC may exhibit a stronger outlook against traditional markets.
Analyst Niels assesses that a possible crash in the stock market could trigger a final capitulation sell-off in Bitcoin, after which BTC could begin to outperform stocks.
In the chart shared by the analyst, support and resistance zones from past periods stand out in the BTC SPX rate. This outlook indicates that Bitcoin has failed to establish sustained relative strength against stocks. Niels treats the chart not as a direct price prediction, but as a framework that shows the decisive impact of macro conditions on BTC.
Mini glossary: The BTC SPX ratio is an indicator that compares Bitcoin’s performance against the S&P 500 index. An increase in the ratio indicates that Bitcoin is stronger than stocks, and a decrease indicates that it is lagging behind.
Macro conditions determine Bitcoin pricing
Bitcoin moved in a similar direction to technology stocks, especially during periods of tight monetary policy and when risk appetite weakened. Similar price reactions were seen in both BTC and equity markets as high interest rates and economic uncertainty limited demand for risky assets.
However, previous cycles have also shown that Bitcoin can diverge from traditional assets over time. During periods when liquidity increased and investor confidence recovered, BTC outperformed many stock indicators. Whether this trend will re-emerge will largely depend on macroeconomic data and corporate capital flows.
ETF effect creates a different picture than previous cycles
Unlike previous market cycles, Bitcoin is now receiving support from broader institutional participation with the introduction of spot BTC ETFs in the US. BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin fund, iShares BTC Trust, stood out as one of the products that grew in a short time. With this picture, BlackRock revealed that institutional interest continues despite volatile market conditions.
BlackRock data shows that the iShares BTC Trust is among the fastest-growing spot Bitcoin ETFs, and institutional interest hasn’t completely faded away during volatile periods.
ETF inflows have created a new source of demand that was not available in previous cycles. However, while institutional buying may offset selling pressure, broader market weakness may continue to impact BTC in the short term. Investors turning to risk reduction in different markets may put additional pressure on Bitcoin price.
Share markets and confidence may be decisive for the new direction
Bitcoin’s next phase appears to depend on whether US equity markets can maintain their current momentum or enter a deeper correction. If there is a significant weakening in the shares, it is considered possible that BTC will first encounter additional sales and then strengthen its relative performance.
This framework reflects a single analyst’s interpretation rather than a definitive market forecast. Macroeconomic data, monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, ETF money flows and on-chain indicators will be closely monitored to understand the direction of Bitcoin in the coming period.
