Bitcoin traded around $63,173 after a volatile trend on the first trading day of the week. In the asset, which moved between $62,468 and $63,874 during the day, the $63,500 region stood out in terms of the short-term outlook. Market players are now watching whether this support can be maintained and the price can regain momentum towards $65,700.
ETF inflows support short-term outlook
Spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the US recorded net inflows of $221.7 million on a daily basis. Thus, as the 10-day outflow series ended, the strongest daily entry in nearly two months was seen. Considering that the weak course in June weighed on sentiment on the corporate side, this flow marked a remarkable change for the market.
Mini glossary: Spot Bitcoin ETF is an investment fund that directly tracks Bitcoin and is traded on traditional exchanges. These products allow institutional and individual investors to access the price of Bitcoin without directly storing the crypto asset.
The price’s re-exceeding of the $63,500 region coincided with these entries. The analyst, known as That Martini Guy in the market, said that the first withdrawal at this level should be considered normal, and that previous resistances are often not overcome on the first try.
That Martini Guy evaluated that the most important factor is that Bitcoin rose above $ 63,500 after weeks and made this region a support again, and if this level is maintained, the rise attempt can continue.
The short-term technical outlook remains dependent on whether buyers can defend this area. A permanence above $63,500 may bring the $65,700 level back to the agenda. On the other hand, if the support is lost, the $61,000 region may be retested.
| Indicator | Level | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| Short term support | $63,500 | If protected, recovery may continue |
| close resistance | $65,700 | Last strong selling area |
| Downward tracked area | $61,000 | May come forward if support breaks |
Short position closings accelerated the movement
Not only spot demand but also futures market movements were effective in the rise. As Bitcoin rose above $62,000, some investors with short positions had to close their positions. Compulsory purchases contributed to the acceleration of the intraday recovery.
Despite this, the outlook remains fragile. Although Bitcoin has regained its support area, the area where the last harsh rejection was seen has not been overcome yet. For a more permanent recovery, stability in transaction volume and continuation of purchases are important.
Hold above $63,500 supports the short-term structure. However, a stronger picture regarding the permanence of the movement is not considered to have been formed until the last rejection zone around $ 65,700 is overcome.
US data softened interest rate expectations
Another factor that supported Bitcoin was the weak employment data from the USA. Nonfarm employment in June increased by 57,000, below the expectation of 110,000. While employment growth in May was revised downwards, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent with the decrease in labor force participation.
This situation alleviated concerns that the US Federal Reserve might increase interest rates in the short term. The decline in bond yields and the weakening of the dollar supported the appetite for risky assets. Bitcoin, which is among the assets that do not produce returns, was positively affected by this environment.
All eyes in the market are on the Fed minutes
Data to be announced in the coming days may also have an impact on pricing. Investors will watch the Federal Reserve June meeting minutes to be released on Wednesday. In addition, service sector PMI data, ADP employment report and unemployment benefit applications may also affect the direction of interest rate expectations.
At this stage, two opposing dynamics stand out in the market. While fresh inflows on the ETF side and recovery of the $63,500 support support upward attempts, strong outflows in June, limited liquidity and regulatory pressure in Europe maintain a cautious stance. Therefore, while persistence above $63,500 keeps $65,700 on the agenda, a downward break may lead to the $61,000 region being discussed again.
