Fidelity Investments Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer said that speculative capital, driven by high risk appetite, quickly exited both crypto assets and precious metals, and investors shifted their weight to semiconductor stocks. According to Timmer, this change in direction brought about sharp price movements in alternative stores of value.
Speculative money flow changed direction
Timmer stated that speculative interest first concentrated on Bitcoin and then turned to gold. Noting that this process triggered an almost steep rise, especially in gold, Timmer stated that short-term capital has now largely left metals behind and moved to the technology sector. Fidelity Investments is among the world’s largest asset management companies, and its evaluations on the macro outlook and market flows are closely monitored.
Gold’s weakening seems understandable as global M2 growth slowed to 7% from its peak of 12%, but the pullback in gold remained sharper than this limited slowdown in M2.
According to Timmer’s assessment, gold was priced according to the real interest model for a long time. In this approach, gold tended to move in the opposite direction to real interest yields. However, shared data reveals that this relationship is no longer as evident as before.
Liquidity effect in gold came to the fore
Stating that this model broke down at the beginning of 2022, Timmer said that gold is increasingly becoming an asset that reflects global liquidity. According to Fidelity data, the main driver of the rise was the increase in the global money supply M2. While M2 growth reached 12% on an annual basis at the beginning of 2026, gold also reached an all-time high of $5,595.
Mini dictionary: M2 is a broad indicator of money supply that includes cash in circulation, demand deposits and similar instruments that can be easily converted into cash. It is frequently used to monitor liquidity trends in markets.
As global M2 growth fell from its peak of 12% to 7%, gold fell sharply to $3,959. Timmer argues that this sale may be an overreaction by the market.
| Indicator | Before | latest situation |
|---|---|---|
| Global M2 growth | 12% | 7% |
| gold price | $5,595 peak | $3,959 bottom |
| Dollar Index | Under significant resistance | 101.8 |
Bitcoin remains under pressure as dollar strengthens
During the same period, the market began to price that the US Federal Reserve might step back from its recent interest rate cuts. This expectation supported a significant strengthening of the US dollar. Timmer emphasized that the dollar showed a clear breakout after a long horizontal base, as central banks turned to a tight stance again.
The Dollar Index rose to 101.8 and an important resistance zone is left behind.
The strengthening of the dollar and the tightening of financial conditions puts pressure on risky assets. According to Timmer, this picture does not seem favorable for more volatile market instruments, including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is having difficulty holding on above the $60,000 threshold. While the shift of speculative capital to technology stocks leads to a weakening of short-term demand in the crypto market, a strong dollar and tighter monetary conditions also increase this pressure.
